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    Prediction markets for Webb

    Will NASA confirm the discovery of alien before 2026?

    Feb 15, 5:19 PMDec 26, 4:58 AM
    6.41%chance
    96771

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3972

    128

    Manifold Scouts: Future NFL Head Coaches

    Feb 20, 8:30 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM
    115067

    OptionProbability

    Ben Johnson

    Kellen Moore

    Aaron Glenn

    Brian Schottenheimer

    Liam Coen

    Joe Brady

    Ejiro Evero

    Robert Saleh

    Dennard Wilson

    Brian Flores

    Todd Monken

    Mike Kafka

    Davis Webb

    Matt Nagy

    Arthur Smith

    Vance Joseph

    Steve Spagnuolo

    Vic Fangio

    Bobby Slowik

    Lou Anarumo

    Leslie Frasier

    Jim Schwartz

    Eric Bienamy

    Bill Belichick

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    64

    62

    61

    55

    55

    55

    48

    45

    43

    43

    42

    39

    38

    35

    33

    29

    29

    22

    20

    By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?

    Jul 4, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    5.39%chance
    344861

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1576

    925

    OptionProbability

    #149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

    #151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

    #169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

    #170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

    #150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

    #152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

    #153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

    #154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

    #155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

    #156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

    #157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

    #158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

    #159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

    #161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

    #162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

    #163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

    #166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

    #168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

    #171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

    #173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

    #174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

    #176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models

    #160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

    #164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

    #165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

    #175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

    #145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

    #146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

    #167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

    #172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

    #144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

    #147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

    #148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

    45

    45

    45

    45

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    38

    38

    38

    38

    37

    37

    35

    35

    34

    34

    34

    OptionProbability

    Aella (@Aella_Girl)

    Liv Boeree (@Liv_Boeree)

    Sara Imari Walker (@Sara_Imari)

    Kat Woods (@Kat_Woods)

    Amanda Askell (@AmandaAskell)

    Grace Hopper

    Catherine Fitts (@solari_the)

    Allison Duettmann (@Allisondman)

    Jamie Joyce (@JustJamieJoyce)

    Annie Jacobsen (@AnnieJacobsen)

    Hannah Fry (@FryRsquared)

    Molly Adler (@bftbpod)

    Emily Adlam

    Beatriz Villarroel (@drbeavillarroel)

    Josie Glabach (@TRHLofficial)

    Whitney Webb (@_whitneywebb)

    Agnes Callard (@AgnesCallard)

    Birdie Jaworski (@AtomZomb)

    Alexis Jazmyn (@dralexisjazmyn)

    Stella Assange (@Stella_Assange)

    Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan)

    Sarah Constantin (@s_r_constantin)

    Megyn Kelly (@mygynkelly)

    Candace Owens (@RealCandaceO)

    Amaryllis Fox (@amaryllisfox)

    97

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    96

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    95

    93

    92

    91

    OptionProbability

    Nigel Richards

    Other

    Wellington Jighere

    Adam Logan

    Harshan Lamabadusuriya

    Kevin McMahon

    Allan Oyende

    Gitonga Nderitu

    Will Anderson

    Chris Lipe

    Jason Keller

    Sammy Okosagah

    David Webb

    Akshay Bhandarkar

    David Eldar

    15

    14

    10

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    Will society collapse by 2040?

    Oct 24, 7:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    14.43%chance
    14719

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1020

    978

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    203

    124

    Does Kepler-167e have a moon?

    Oct 25, 2:44 PMNov 2, 12:59 PM
    55.43%chance
    5145

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1115

    897

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