OptionProbability
Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms
Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms
A federal government shutdown occurs
The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law
Israel has a new Prime Minister
Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms
Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms
Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian
An NFL game ends in a tie
The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race
There is a new Prime Minister of the UK
A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione
Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House
A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne
The DC Home Rule Act is repealed
The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law
A one point safety happens in the NFL
Legislative filibuster is abolished
The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland
Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked
Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives
Charles III is no longer king
62
58
50
40
39
34
33
20
15
14
12
10
8
7
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2022
495
166
60
147
68
106
94
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