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Prediction markets for YR4
Will we try to deflect asteroid 2024 YR4 before 2032-12-22?
Feb 6, 1:54 AMDec 23, 3:59 AM
2%chance
3326540
OptionVotes
7001
143
OptionVotes
9805
102
Will asteroid 2024 YR4 have an estimated 50% chance or greater of hitting Earth by December 31, 2026?
Feb 5, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
0.65%chance
3519114
OptionVotes
12353
81
Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?
Feb 8, 8:14 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
3.43%chance
4716486
OptionVotes
5307
188
Is Asteroid 2024-YR4 currently on a trajectory to hit Earth?
Feb 13, 1:50 PMDec 23, 3:59 PM
2.4%chance
3410496
OptionVotes
6375
157
OptionProbability
69
16
7
3
2
2
1
Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?
Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM
2.05%chance
167508
OptionVotes
6905
145
If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with Earth, will it be successfully deflected?
Feb 5, 1:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
47.11%chance
243219
OptionVotes
1060
944
Space agency announces mission to divert asteroid 2024 YR4 before 22 Dec 2032
Jan 29, 3:06 AMDec 22, 12:00 AM
1%chance
171966
OptionVotes
995
10
OptionVotes
629
16
Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact the Moon in December of 2032?
Apr 4, 9:32 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM
5.51%chance
8457
OptionVotes
414
24