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Prediction markets for Abundance
OptionVotes
203846
49057
Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?
Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.81%chance
10816424
OptionVotes
1322
855
Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Nov 13, 11:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4310238
OptionProbability
16
10
10
10
9
9
7
7
7
6
Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?
Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM
49.93%chance
209446
OptionVotes
10015
9985
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?
Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
21.65%chance
152000
OptionVotes
1902
526
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
OptionVotes
1187
785
OptionProbability
92
90
76
76
70
66
59
50
50
48
48
40
34
Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️
Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM
47.29%chance
9169
OptionVotes
106
95
Will the Olive Ridley Turtle, aka Pacific Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) become extinct in the current century?
May 6, 10:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13.77%chance
4161
OptionVotes
658
439
OptionProbability
50
20
20
20
20
15
Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a structural material before 2100?
Jun 15, 12:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
32.71%chance
490
OptionVotes
407
292
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