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Prediction markets for Abundance
Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?
Aug 29, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61%chance
10716329
OptionVotes
1455
760
Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Nov 13, 11:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
419624
OptionProbability
17
14
11
10
10
10
10
7
7
6
Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?
Jan 30, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.76%chance
383934
OptionVotes
1401
714
Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025?
Mar 10, 9:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
62756
OptionProbability
100
100
78
74
59
24
20
20
20
17
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
OptionVotes
1137
824
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?
Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
48.8%chance
101072
OptionVotes
1024
976
OptionVotes
1289
776
Will AI-generated video be used to get away with a criminal (felony) loss of life before the end of 2025?
Feb 19, 4:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
10.67%chance
11235
OptionVotes
1157
958
Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️
Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM
41.79%chance
8159
OptionVotes
118
85
Will the Olive Ridley Turtle, aka Pacific Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) become extinct in the current century?
May 6, 10:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14%chance
4151
OptionVotes
648
440
By 2045, will I feel that working is necessary to maintain a decent quality of life in the United States?
Jun 6, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.56%chance
7149
OptionVotes
114
88
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