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Prediction markets for Active
What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)
Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM
56.25%chance
140101362
OptionProbability
1437
1240
OptionProbability
51
15
4
3
1
1
OptionProbability
97
90
85
85
76
68
67
66
66
65
65
60
60
60
59
56
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
24
0
0
0
0
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.48%chance
533590
OptionVotes
2585
438
Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18%chance
331723
OptionVotes
999
822
Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?
May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
74.23%chance
181680
OptionVotes
1697
589
Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?
Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.84%chance
301176
OptionVotes
1085
858
Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030
Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.39%chance
201032
OptionVotes
1496
812
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30%chance
20808
OptionVotes
1002
990
OptionProbability
1155
765
Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?
Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.16%chance
8294
OptionVotes
143
110
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986