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Prediction markets for AGI
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
23.49%chance
18021021808
OptionVotes
17864
9273
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15.89%chance
286686677
OptionVotes
22659
4871
OptionVotes
4021
882
OptionVotes
1453
990
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.32%chance
86134186
OptionVotes
109153
17619
OptionVotes
1138
813
OptionVotes
1579
724
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
25%chance
23593419
OptionVotes
1788
550
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.8%chance
5626924
OptionVotes
114667
87209
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
Feb 5, 10:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.5%chance
353704
OptionVotes
1006
979
If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?
Aug 28, 1:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.35%chance
5649
OptionVotes
172
58
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