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Top stories

Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Averting Duty Spike

Executive Orders

Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Averting Duty Spike

Authors

141

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Agreement

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

3728507

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

31

19

17

13

8

7

Will the United States Remain Actively Committed to the Paris Agreement by the End of 2025?

Dec 27, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.39%chance

216169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6884

207

Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?

Jul 30, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.57%chance

312302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

738

Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA?

Nov 22, 4:20 PMDec 31, 2:59 AM

14.59%chance

202295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

894

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?

Dec 11, 2:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.29%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

942

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.62%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

944

Will any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?

Mar 20, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.22%chance

11398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

962

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2025?

Dec 7, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.05%chance

6338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

962

Will the US extradite anyone to Russia as part of the peace agreement with Ukraine?

Jan 24, 9:56 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

23.25%chance

3336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Which of these countries will ratify the Paris Agreement before 2030?

Jan 3, 9:17 AMJan 5, 11:59 PM

226

OptionProbability

Libya

Yemen

Iran

43

43

37

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
China
Executive Orders
Tariffs
Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Averting Duty Spike
Authors
141
2 days ago

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