AI Action Plan News
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Prediction markets for AI Action Plan
OptionVotes
2168
461
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%chance
251329
OptionVotes
1017
852
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM
68.91%chance
19761
OptionVotes
149
67
Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?
Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
86.02%chance
13293
OptionVotes
248
40
OptionProbability
64
24
17
10
[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year
Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
570
OptionProbability
66
60
46
44
16