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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Trump Asserts U.S. Leads China in Artificial Intelligence Race

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for AI Action Plan

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.08%chance

212832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

470

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.36%chance

182634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3311

302

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

8.45%chance

152561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3293

304

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

TSA abolished by EOY 2030?

Mar 27, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

97

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