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Prediction markets for AI Data Platform
OptionVotes
2045
489
OptionVotes
19061
5209
Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
19.1%chance
3915919
OptionVotes
20588
4839
Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
21.33%chance
2710339
OptionVotes
19404
4922
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30%chance
404686
OptionVotes
1528
655
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM
16.71%chance
92023
OptionVotes
2233
448
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
63.69%chance
10668
OptionVotes
1324
755
Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?
Dec 29, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
82.53%chance
14289
OptionVotes
987
970
Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?
Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
60.48%chance
9235
OptionVotes
131
122
Will OpenAI launch or buy out a social media network by Jan 2028?
Apr 16, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.98%chance
12194
OptionVotes
100
100
Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?
Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.2%chance
4116
OptionVotes
112
89
Will an AI 'TV Show' With 4+ Episodes Enjoy Total Viewership of 5 Million Per Season By October 2029?*
Oct 7, 7:17 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM
58.73%chance
490
OptionVotes
119
84
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