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Prediction markets for AI Day
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
463382160
OptionVotes
3693
1551
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
10.38%chance
80226817
OptionVotes
174652
15876
OptionVotes
1157
907
OptionVotes
1083
959
October 16th will obviously be the biggest day in AI this year
Jan 18, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
0.04%chance
51504
OptionVotes
5279
2
OptionVotes
1507
933
Conditional on AGI being available by 2045, will Eliezer Yudkowsky be declared enemy #1 by the AI during the first 60 days?
Feb 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
6.63%chance
131024
OptionVotes
1446
931
Can I earn €100+ in 30 days monetizing AI songs made with SUNO?
Jun 10, 3:19 PMAug 22, 3:17 PM
7.06%chance
14412
OptionVotes
363
28
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
May 12, 2:19 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM
10.48%chance
9350
OptionVotes
465
123
As a rough guess what % of images that we see in a day will be AI in Jan 2029?
Feb 29, 3:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
48.08%chance
6136
OptionVotes
184
176
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027
Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
386
[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030
Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
328
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