OptionVotes
YES
NO
200
50
OptionProbability
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
56
55
44
42
37
Customer Service Representative < 2028
Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)
Market Research Analyst < 2030
Compliance Officer < 2030
Human Resources Manager < 2030
Graphic Designer < 2028
Judges < 2040
Teacher < 2040
53
45
36
35
34
28
112
91
"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely
"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom
"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell
"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian
"The Precipice" by Tob Ord
"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill
"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares
43
0
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