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AI Overview News

    Prediction markets for AI Overview

    Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

    Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
    20%chance
    201635

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    200

    50

    OptionProbability

    8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year

    2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later

    7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months

    1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later

    3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later

    6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year

    9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years

    4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later

    5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months

    79

    63

    61

    56

    55

    50

    44

    42

    37

    First jobs to be replaced by AI?

    Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM
    21885

    OptionProbability

    Customer Service Representative < 2028

    Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

    Market Research Analyst < 2030

    Compliance Officer < 2030

    Human Resources Manager < 2030

    Graphic Designer < 2028

    Judges < 2040

    Teacher < 2040

    53

    45

    36

    36

    35

    34

    28

    28

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    112

    91

    OptionProbability

    "Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

    "Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

    "Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

    "The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

    "The Precipice" by Tob Ord

    "What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

    "If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

    43

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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