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Prediction markets for Aliens
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
95382487
OptionProbability
76
11
10
8
7
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)
Sep 13, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.21%chance
236229550
OptionVotes
9860
2273
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?
May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.11%chance
14018007
OptionVotes
2694
1804
OptionVotes
1325
937
OptionVotes
1366
938
OptionVotes
1002
975
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
423994
OptionVotes
1057
822
P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.9%chance
673914
OptionVotes
1197
615
OptionVotes
1194
950
OptionVotes
1082
968
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?
Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
20.54%chance
331116
OptionVotes
1172
939
Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?
Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.76%chance
11242
OptionVotes
1135
926
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