OptionVotes
NO
YES
223
45
425
24
1734
577
OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with major concessions
Deal with minimal concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Venezuela-style puppet state
Balkanization/long civil war
Popular takeover
Voluntary transition of power
37
25
6
3
2
1
1100
977
+1% - +5%
-14% - -10%
-4% - 0%
-9% - -5%
-15% or lower
+6% - +10%
+11% - +15%
+16% or higher
20
17
16
10
9
5
111
90
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