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Top stories

Vance Defends Prayer, Cites Mental-Health Crisis After Minneapolis School Shooting

Vance Defends Prayer, Cites Mental-Health Crisis After Minneapolis School Shooting

Authors

20

3 months ago

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

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20

3 months ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

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32

3 months ago

Vance Promotes Trump Tax-Spending Law at Wisconsin Steel Plant

Authors

15

3 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Newsom Warns Trump Moves to Secure Power Beyond 2028 Election

Authors

16

3 months ago

US Domestic Policy

White House Warns Democrat-Run Cities ‘Decline Is a Choice,’ Cites D.C. Crime Drop

Authors

15

3 months ago

US Foreign Policy

US Ambassador Charles Kushner Praises Trump, Cites Nobel Peace Prize, Criticizes France on Ukraine, Hamas, and Antisemitism

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4

3 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Democrats Escalate Campaign Against Trump’s ‘Big Ugly Bill’ Cuts

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3

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Americans

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

503200664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5243

1084

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.19%chance

467100387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8199

980

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

Dec 5, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2030407

OptionProbability

0.21-0.5%

0-0.2%

0.51-1%

1.01-2%

5.01-10%

>10%

2.01-5%

63

25

6

2

2

2

1

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to the majority of american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

32.81%chance

15416523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

1324

North American 2025 Rhodium estimate to exceed 19 koz

Aug 13, 12:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.02%chance

911738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13623

7341

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Will 60% of Americans approve abortion "for any reason" before 2030?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1489

351

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.66%chance

20926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

881

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

Will it ever be true that >50% of Americans own cryptocurrency?**

Oct 7, 1:18 AMJan 2, 12:50 AM

9237

OptionProbability

2055 or later (or never)

Yes, before 2055

Yes, before 2045

Yes, before 2035

82

9

8

1

Who will win 2026 MLB ALCS? ⚾ (American League Championship Series)

Oct 26, 10:45 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Boston Red Sox

Texas Rangers

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Seattle Mariners

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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