and Other Stuff News

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

A good AI should not kill people.

There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

I have free will.

A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

We should stop doing massive training runs.

The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

Induction is not justified.

A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

AI should not create novel content.

The quality of mercy is not strained...

Vriska did nothing wrong.

Directly help with LessOnline and/or Manifest

Help Ray with Feedbackloop Rationality

Directly help with the LessWrong Community Weekend

Actively talk to as many organizers as possible

Publish the rest of Running A Basic ____ sequence, going up to 1k+ events

Build a better Meetup Crossposter

Run a Meetup Exchange Program

Run an essayist writing group

Make the refined, digital version of Meetup In A Box

Run East Coast Rationalist Megameetup

Youtube Guide To ACX

Tiktok Guide To The Sequences

Run Vermont/Massachusetts Summer Solstice

Run LessWrong Community Census 2025

Get a Rationality Club going in a high school

Publish the rest of Conflict Resolution sequence

Run the ACX Meetup Reimbursement program

Run a paid workshop or dojo (Think CFAR workshop or Trading Bootcamp)

Fix and upgrade LessWrong's /Community page

Find a nice high paid normal job and fund someone else doing cool rationality meetup stuff

Put together an ACX equivalent to the EA Handbook

Create an ACX Jobs Board

Help get a Boston version of Fractal off the ground

Run Boston Solstice

Publish Anatomy of Community sequence

Set up a formal 501c3 (or something like that)

Handle incoming complaints about local meetups

Publish a guide to running a Sky-Style Summer Solstice

Backend ACX Everywhere (Fall and Spring)

Get Calibration Trivia to be run in multiple pubs, unaffiliated with the rationalist community

Publish some really good fanfic

Publish a beautiful, well edited Highlights From The Codex in physical form

HPMOR 10-year anniversary

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

Understands existential risk from AI.

Likes finding out that she is wrong about stuff.

Is insatiably curious.

Open minded enough to go to contact in the dessert.

Is super into taboo philosophy.

Open to moral sexual deviance and drug use.

Wants to have kids and teach AI how to tolerate them.

Wants to live in Austin, TX.

Wants to visit and explore a wide array of decentralized city projects (Zuzula, Cabin, etc).

Likes to attend Lessonline and Manifest.

Likes to go to burning man.

Wants to help organize an 8 billion person online intellectual orgy by integrating surveys into decision markets in a way that allows sovereign individuals to mint their own nonfungible assets by interpretably defining alignment criteria.

Likes to be submissive.

Is into esoteric history.

Works in AI.

Likes to listen to Danny Jones and Jesse Michels.

Is a global skeptic that only believes what she can prove.

Likes to adopt dogs that need rescued.

She is obsessed with mapping the logical connective structure of ever interpretable proposition that is definable.

Will be less than 90% confident that 'there isn't an ontologically shocking explanation to the UFO phenomenon'.

Likes to attend philosophy conferences and talk about Kant, Hume, Wittgenstein and Diogenes.

Like to meditate twice a day.

Prefers a primarily meat based diet.

Works at Society Library.

Is familiar with gofai (specifically Danny Hillis and Doug Lenat's work).

Is ambitious enough to try to control the world.

Thinks decision markets are the key to sovereignty.

Wants to study at Network School.

Likes >2hr of rigorous exercise per day.

Can survive in the woods.

She will be @JamieJoyce.

Voted for RFK Jr.

She will be @Aella.

Aliens

Black holes

Dyson sphere

Neutron stars

Strange matter

Stellar engines

Roche limit

Lagrange points

Ants

Dark matter

Exotic matter

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot

"IRON MAIDEN"

"MR. BLUE SKY"

"BOOGIE WONDERLAND" by Earth, Wind & Fire

"HOTEL CALIFORNIA" by Eagles

"LOVELY DAY" by Bill Withers

"SABOTAGE" by Beastie Boys

"WILD YOUNG HEARTS" by Noisettes

"ATOMIC CITY" by U2

"CEMETERY GATES" by Pantera

"HOT STUFF" by Donna Summer

"LOW RIDER" by War

"RUBBERBAND MAN" by The Spinners

"HOUSE OF THE RISING SUN" by The Animals

"SIGN YOUR NAME" by Sananda Maitreya

"BLURRYFACE" by Twenty One Pilots

"EMPIRE STATE OF MIND" by Jay-z

"MAKING MIRRORS" by Gotye

"CHAPMAN" (Tracy Chapman)

"I'M OUTTA LOVE" by Anastacia

"HIT THE ROAD JACK" by Ray Charles

"TOXICITY" by System of a Down

"ENJOY THE SILENCE" by Depeche Mode

YES

AI (including AI safety, AI ethics, e/acc)

Culture war. Culture war never changes. (I.E. it's still the same main stuff as in March 2024)

Eugenics

Polyamory

Child labor

4am

3am

5am

6am

If I apologize and make amends for past mistakes, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I maintain regular communication with my ex over the next 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I post on instagram and stories of cool stuff I’m doing, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I live alone and don’t have a roommate, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I start dating other people via dating apps, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I start going out to meet women to go on dates with, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I tell her about this prediction market, the likelihood of getting engaged will increase

If I propose with a ring at this moment, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I tell her that I will commit to 1 date per week, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I gain 15 pounds of muscle, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I stop watching porn, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

If I start TRT, the likelihood of us getting back together will increase

If I go no contact for 3 months, the likelihood of getting back together will increase

Within 3 years

Within 6 years

Within a year

Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment

Skills: I fail to stay relevant

Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming

AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees

Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

Health: I get a chronic illness

Health: I get an acute injury