Annual Meeting News

ABA Ends Reserved Board Seats, Passes Wide-Ranging Legal and Immigration Resolutions

3 days ago

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

11%chance

15465478

OptionVotes

YES

2844

352

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

16.41%chance

7112016

OptionVotes

YES

2257

443

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

21.48%chance

5510519

OptionVotes

YES

18716

5669

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.07%chance

589366

OptionVotes

YES

1923

1018

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

41917

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

1241

941

Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 9, 1:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

75%chance

11348

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

How many books will my Reading club read in 2025?

Dec 2, 3:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7236

OptionProbability

8 to 11

5 to 8

11 to 14

15 to 20

Less than 5

Other

More than 20

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.78%chance

5146

OptionVotes

YES

1123

890

What will Germany's defense budget be for 2025? (excluding Zeitenwende!)

Feb 19, 6:33 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

295

OptionProbability

€53.25 billion or lower (current plan or lower)

Between €53.26 billion and €79.99 billion

€80 billion or higher

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ABA Ends Reserved Board Seats, Passes Wide-Ranging Legal and Immigration Resolutions
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Prediction markets for Annual Meeting

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Prediction markets for Annual Meeting

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

How many books will my Reading club read in 2025?

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

What will Germany's defense budget be for 2025? (excluding Zeitenwende!)

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram