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Top stories

India’s Organ Transplants Surpass 18,000 in 2023 with Record 2024 Surgeries, Traffic-Free Routes, and $50B MedTech Market

India’s Organ Transplants Surpass 18,000 in 2023 with Record 2024 Surgeries, Traffic-Free Routes, and $50B MedTech Market

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4

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Answering the Call

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.57%chance

889441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

881

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423590

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

65

56

0

0

0

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.15%chance

323360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

888

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Oct 31, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.49%chance

233005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

808

what are the odds that backblaze is backdoored?

Oct 8, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

31.71%chance

161653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

681

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

Feb 1, 4:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

75.64%chance

81124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

568

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Will Nothing Unanticipated Happen by November?

Jul 20, 4:16 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

47.96%chance

8493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3619

3387

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.74%chance

13436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

977

Who during, the next Congress, will call on the next Senate to eliminate or limit the filibuster? [Add Answers]

Nov 13, 12:11 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM

2393

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

JD Vance

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Dave McCormick

Rick Scott

Josh Hawley

John Thune

John Cornyn

Rand Paul

Lindsey Graham

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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