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OptionVotes
YES
NO
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OptionProbability
For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs
It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"
By default, the generated videos will be watermarked
A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space
A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month
OpenAI will be sued over the model
It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)
A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements
It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation
A second major version of the model has been released
A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet
It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes
costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50
A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show
It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website
It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names
Video will include sound
A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views
It will be jailbroken to make a porn video
It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription
it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country
A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views
At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header
Sora will be part of GPT model
It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)
Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored
There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives
It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
It will be the SOTA for text to video
It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo
It has been renamed
It will be free to use
A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month
The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian
It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)
The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather
A third major version of the model has been released
OpenAI will release the number of model parameters
Full description of model architecture will be public
Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization
The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes
A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market
OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model
Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization
A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora
It was accessible to the public before May 2024
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
The CIA killed JFK
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
A cure for cancer has already been found
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Bush did 9/11
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Tesla
Waymo
Other
openpilot
General Motors
Cavendish Labs
None (does not happen by market close)
73
23
3
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Israel / Iran
Nigeria / Cameroon
Balochistan / Anyone
India / Pakistan
Central African Republic Civil War
Iraqi Conflict
Bangladesh / Anyone
Kurdistan / Anyone
United States / Iran
Azerbaijan / Armenia
100
100
72
28
24
15
14
13
10
9
OptionProbability
Donald Trump talks about the case
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Mangione extradited to NY in 2024
Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecutors seek the death penalty
Luigi gets a marriage proposal
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Defense requests change in venue
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione
Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family
Defense seeks competence evaluation
“JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered
Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Suspect makes a confession
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Mangione represents himself in all hearings
Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)
The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them
100
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100
100
100
100
100
94
58
54
43
42
37
31
23
22
21
18
15
15
13
11
6
6
2
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)
Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.
Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board
Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)
Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)
Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player
Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)
60
44
28
22
19
12
10
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hobbesian
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
The Apprentice
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Love triangle
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
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8
3
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0
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0
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0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
39
24
OptionProbability
Anyone before end of 2027
Elon Musk before end of 2027
Anyone before end of 2026
Elon Musk before end of 2026
Anyone before end of 2025
Elon Musk before end of 2025
91
83
80
66
36
35
OptionProbability
(Unrecorded)
(Unintelligible)
Melania
Make America Great Again
We love Elon. Folks, we love him.
My Country
Biden
Rosebud
Elon / Elon Musk
Kamala
I'm not dying!
MAGA! Please, MAGA!
Inflation
mars
My legacy, it was the best legacy, it had never been done before
Vriska did nothing wrong
go birds
rationalussy
The doctors tell me I'm dying better than anyone has ever died before. Tremendous dying. The best.
I know more about the afterlife than anyone. Heaven is already calling me saying 'Sir, we've never seen poll numbers like yours up here.
I guess I exercised too much
Hey, make sure that my name appears in the history books as a great person
Joe Biden still survives
"my white plume ..."
Polymarket
The Grim Reaper just called me. Terrific guy. Says he's never seen someone fight death so strongly. Very impressed.
This Isn't Even My Final Form!
Karoline, make something up. Something very big
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35
30
18
10
8
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OptionProbability
I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16
I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?
Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?
Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?
Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?
Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads
Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?
Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?
Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)
Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026
Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031
Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?
Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?
Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?
Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?
Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?
Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?
Will we have 20+ this year?
Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?
Will we meet in the library at least once?
Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?
Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?
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50
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0
