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Apache News

    Prediction markets for Apache

    What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

    Apr 1, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    356404

    OptionProbability

    released in the month of August 2025

    At least 20B Parameters

    At least 70B parameters

    At least 30B parameters

    Uses Mixture of Experts

    At least 120B Parameters

    Is a reasoning model

    An instruct model is made accessible

    Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

    better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

    MIT or Apache license

    Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

    The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

    Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

    At least 300B parameters

    my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

    A base model is made accessible

    Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

    released in September, October, November, or December 2025

    released in the month of June 2025

    released in the month of July 2025

    97

    95

    94

    90

    88

    88

    86

    80

    80

    79

    74

    41

    34

    25

    14

    8

    7

    6

    3

    1

    0

    Will Fuchsia ship in a non-Google product this decade?

    Sep 1, 12:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    12.6%chance
    7160

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    183

    29

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