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Prediction markets for Apollo Moon landing
Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
35.33%chance
334940
OptionVotes
1102
748
Will Elon Musk imply before 2026 that NASA didn't land on the moon?
Sep 23, 5:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.08%chance
204935
OptionVotes
4322
231
When will a man land on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions?
Feb 28, 8:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
132520
OptionProbability
92
91
85
80
76
64
41
14
2
OptionProbability
16
10
9
9
8
7
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Elon Musk come out against one of the following consensus positions before the end of 2026? (Add answers)
Mar 8, 1:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
281392
OptionProbability
17
16
15
15
6
1
Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?
Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.91%chance
201175
OptionVotes
1594
530
Will there be a serious "moon hoax" movement about the next moon landing within 5 years of it?
Apr 10, 12:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
58.66%chance
251147
OptionVotes
1073
864
OptionVotes
947
40
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.77%chance
9913
OptionVotes
1311
763
Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?
Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM
13.71%chance
12322
OptionVotes
1237
921
OptionProbability
57
15
10
9
5
5
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