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[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:21 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM
3048373
OptionProbability
99
1
0
0
0
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.39%chance
6012486
OptionVotes
1590
670
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Mar 29, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
99%chance
3412236
OptionVotes
9950
101
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.73%chance
6111442
OptionVotes
1104
913
OptionVotes
1690
76
OptionVotes
1175
851
Will Marius Binner Win the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026
Oct 1, 10:45 AMNov 15, 12:59 AM
49.95%chance
83312
OptionVotes
1001
999
OptionVotes
1291
915
Will Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?
Jan 19, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.21%chance
8558
OptionVotes
1170
855
Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.14%chance
2270
OptionVotes
1252
964
Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.82%chance
113
OptionVotes
1013
998
Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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