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Prediction markets for Arc
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
3.05%chance
294872977
OptionVotes
58819
2107
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM
6763832
OptionProbability
98
96
94
0
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?
Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1%chance
8050681
OptionVotes
3404
12
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59%chance
6814111
OptionVotes
1943
28
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.23%chance
6012000
OptionVotes
1396
729
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.08%chance
418758
OptionVotes
1177
850
OptionVotes
1617
91
OptionVotes
1358
736
OptionVotes
1291
915
Will the Elbaf arc have a higher peak worldwide Google Trends search interest than any previous One Piece arc?
Nov 1, 5:49 PMJan 1, 1:00 PM
48.98%chance
4550
OptionVotes
1021
980
Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 17, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.52%chance
3425
OptionVotes
1117
982
Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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