Art of the Game News
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Prediction markets for Art of the Game
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80
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77
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66
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47
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31
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28
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25
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25
24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?
May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
28.43%chance
11712
OptionVotes
1414
776
When will I be able to watch a trailer for the next Half-Life game?
Nov 17, 4:02 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM
14648
OptionProbability
63
57
47
45
43
3
0
AI entirely replaces indie game developers in the future?
Aug 8, 3:39 AMSep 7, 3:39 AM
8.26%chance
6541
OptionVotes
333
30
Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
6.85%chance
16523
OptionVotes
369
27
OptionVotes
182
55
Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?
Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.99%chance
10177
OptionVotes
257
192
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM
2130
OptionProbability
49
39
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
OptionProbability
75
66
OptionProbability
75
65