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US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

US Foreign Policy

US Ambassador to NATO Urges European Role, Says Ukraine Security Guarantee Means Alliance Without NATO Participation

6

6 months ago

Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

US Foreign Policy

Lavrov Pushback on Ukraine Guarantees Derails US-Russia Peace Talks

5

6 months ago

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?

Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM

16.42%chance

81748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

443

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

Jan 15, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

18814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

924

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

23.18%chance

19675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

859

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

966

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

28.57%chance

10439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

961

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

63.08%chance

6420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

765

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.16%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

999

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

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