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Prediction markets for ASP
Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀
Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.21%chance
373629
OptionVotes
944
934
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
75.64%chance
392362
OptionVotes
1762
567
OptionVotes
351
20
Will Tom Aspinall win his first UFC heavyweight title defence?
Jun 22, 8:52 AMDec 31, 9:48 AM
75.77%chance
71290
OptionVotes
1769
565
Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41.32%chance
13711
OptionVotes
1206
382
Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?
Aug 4, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.01%chance
28520
OptionVotes
1002
988
Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next five years?
Oct 2, 2:24 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM
13.25%chance
8218
OptionVotes
347
113
By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?
Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.04%chance
1087
OptionVotes
1054
972
Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?
Jul 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.04%chance
485
OptionVotes
128
128
Will Delian Asparouhov (or a parody of) make it into GTA6?
Apr 10, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.17%chance
130
OptionVotes
150
97
OptionVotes
50
50
OptionVotes
50
50