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Top stories

Google Plans 2K Nest Camera Refresh and ‘Google Home Premium’ Service

Google Plans 2K Nest Camera Refresh and ‘Google Home Premium’ Service

Authors

24

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Assistant

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

323958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

90

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

966

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

27.78%chance

52305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.4%chance

341368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

986

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will number of physician assisted suicides in Canada be above 17,500 in 2026?

Jan 15, 4:05 PMJan 16, 4:04 PM

76.98%chance

111158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1829

547

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.33%chance

32964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

881

Will access to social assistance be automated in France before 2027 ?

Jun 20, 9:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.19%chance

11258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

953

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2035?

Aug 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.83%chance

5256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

883

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Will assisted suicide become legal in Michigan before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

54.97%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will assisted suicide become legal in Arizona before 2045?

Aug 3, 3:38 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

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