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Top stories

Ohio Man Charged After Sex Toy Hits Girl at Liberty Game

Ohio Man Charged After Sex Toy Hits Girl at Liberty Game

Authors

5

4 months ago

Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

Authors

33

4 months ago

Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

Authors

16

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Aug

Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?

Aug 27, 8:13 PMFeb 2, 2:59 AM

5653619

OptionProbability

18-months (27th Jan 2026)

6 months (27th Jan 2025)

12 months (27th Aug 2025)

11

0

0

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

1432030

OptionProbability

2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

69

12

10

7

2

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

50.71%chance

16524650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3378

3221

When will Deltarune Chapter 5 release? (UTC)

Aug 4, 10:29 PMDec 31, 11:28 PM

89139

OptionProbability

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Dec 2026

Jul 2026

After 2026

Jun 2026

May 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

Before 2026

14

13

12

12

11

10

10

7

4

2

2

2

2

1

When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?

Apr 10, 12:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

226859

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of Apr 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

10

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ashwin returns to US by Aug 19th 2026?

Aug 20, 3:47 AMAug 19, 11:59 PM

73.88%chance

51898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM

22.8%chance

171176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

461

Dwarkesh's mystery guest revealed by Aug 21, 2026?

Aug 30, 2:15 AMAug 21, 11:59 PM

10.78%chance

10551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

4150

OptionProbability

Other

Venezuela

Haiti

Brazil

Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

Dominican Republic

Peru

Argentina

Bahamas

Ecuador

Panama

Suriname

46

38

12

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

54

Manifold Lottery (Weekly, ends Aug 18)

Aug 11, 5:33 PMAug 12, 6:59 AM

00

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