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Top stories

Ohio Man Charged After Sex Toy Hits Girl at Liberty Game

Ohio Man Charged After Sex Toy Hits Girl at Liberty Game

Authors

5

1 year ago

Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

Patriots Rookies Henderson, Chism Lift New England Over Vikings 20-12

Authors

33

1 year ago

Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

Browns Elevate Rookie Dillon Gabriel to Backup QB; Shedeur Sanders Falls to No. 3

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Aug

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2285402

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Before EOY

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

95

2

1

1

1

Will Apple start making a new iPhone mini before 7th Aug 2028?

Aug 7, 2:43 PMAug 7, 10:59 PM

12.46%chance

181596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

881

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:12 AMAug 6, 12:00 AM

96.8%chance

91155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

517

15

Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)

Oct 23, 7:24 PMNov 12, 11:59 PM

4406

OptionProbability

+2.45 to +2.59

Below +2.30

+2.30 to +2.44

+2.60 or higher (new record)

97

1

1

1

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:36 PMAug 6, 12:00 AM

45.29%chance

16268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?

Jul 8, 10:15 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

8180

OptionProbability

Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

Venezuela

Other

Haiti

Brazil

Dominican Republic

Peru

Argentina

Bahamas

Ecuador

Panama

Suriname

38

29

26

6

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

54

When will be the AI Bhopal?

Feb 5, 11:15 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Feb-Apr 2026

May-Jul 2026

Aug-Oct 2026

Nov-Jan 2027

Feb-Apr 2027

May-Jul 2027

Aug-Oct 2027

Nov-Jan 2028

Feb 2028-Jan 2029

Feb 2029-Jan 2030

Feb 2030-Jan 2035

Feb 2035-Feb 2040

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

17

17

17

17

17

17

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Manifold Lottery (Weekly, ends Aug 18)

Aug 11, 5:33 PMAug 12, 6:59 AM

00

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