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Bill of Rights News

    Prediction markets for Bill of Rights

    Will Elon Musk's political orientation change by the end of 2025?

    Oct 9, 3:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    13.97%chance
    16228157

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2265

    191

    OptionProbability

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    Stays alive

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    have a journalist arrested

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    resume buying oil from Russia

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Dep

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    new blockade of a country

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    Withdraw from NATO

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    expand the borders of the usa

    add a new state

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    repeal Obamacare

    ends black history month

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    all time high unemployment reached

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    Pardon p diddy

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    take control of a part of greenland

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    take control of a part of ukraine

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    pardon george santos

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    repeal an amendment

    pardon derek chauvin

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    declares a white history month

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Replace his Vice President

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    Salute Putin

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    Annex any part of Mexico

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    change the borders of a state

    Call for the end of the Senate

    fauci in jail at least one week

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    bans anime

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    95

    95

    91

    91

    89

    87

    87

    86

    86

    80

    79

    77

    73

    72

    67

    66

    66

    66

    66

    65

    62

    60

    60

    58

    58

    57

    55

    52

    50

    50

    49

    47

    47

    46

    46

    46

    45

    43

    42

    40

    40

    40

    38

    37

    36

    36

    36

    36

    35

    35

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    34

    34

    34

    33

    33

    33

    33

    33

    33

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    31

    31

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    30

    30

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

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    24

    24

    23

    23

    22

    22

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    21

    20

    20

    20

    19

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

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    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

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    15

    15

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    14

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    13

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    13

    12

    12

    12

    12

    11

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    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

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    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

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    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Renters' Rights Bill receives Royal Assent by August 31, 2025

    Jun 19, 6:10 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
    1%chance
    718351

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    17198

    230

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    91

    89

    88

    82

    79

    73

    71

    71

    65

    63

    63

    58

    53

    50

    48

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    28

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    18

    18

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2025?

    Jan 7, 7:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
    90.73%chance
    123760

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3128

    320

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1103

    907

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1010

    851

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1611

    904

    Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

    Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    181079

    OptionProbability

    The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

    Merchant Magician by John Champaign

    The Road by Cormac McCarthy

    The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

    Crime and Punishment

    Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

    Exhalation by Ted Chiang

    Hyperion by Dan Simmons

    War with the Newts

    Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

    (The books you will rate 5 stars)

    Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

    Great Gatsby

    Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

    99

    85

    75

    65

    64

    61

    57

    56

    50

    50

    50

    50

    43

    19

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1259

    922

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1081

    928

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    185

    54

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