Born This Way News

Lady Gaga Kicks Off MAYHEM Ball Tour at Madison Square Garden With Iconic Costumes, Diverse Setlist, and Adam Lambert Attendance

1 day ago

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

Will a year without a "normal" human birth occur before 2050? [See Description]

Oct 30, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.31%chance

9273

OptionVotes

YES

383

167

When will the first baby in space be?

May 3, 3:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3164

OptionProbability

2050s

2040s

2090s

2020s

2030s

2060s

2070s

2080s

After

Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?

Mar 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

10140

OptionVotes

YES

250

100

What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?

Apr 8, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3108

OptionProbability

A book in the main ASOIAF series (ie a sequel to “A Dance with Dragons”, eg “The Winds of Winter”)

A sequel to “Fire & Blood”

A “Dunk and Egg” story or stories

A different in-universe non-fiction book/story

Martin will not release another book/story in the ASOIAF universe in his lifetime

A different fiction book/story

What will be the next presidential “barrier” to be broken?

Jul 1, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

772

OptionProbability

First woman president

First Latin president

First Slavic/Balkan/Italian president

First Asian president

First Jewish president

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

156

143

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

1035

976

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Which time interval will be the largest?

Jul 21, 1:33 PM

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

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Lady Gaga Kicks Off MAYHEM Ball Tour at Madison Square Garden With Iconic Costumes, Diverse Setlist, and Adam Lambert Attendance
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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Will a year without a "normal" human birth occur before 2050? [See Description]

When will the first baby in space be?

Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050?

What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?

What will be the next presidential “barrier” to be broken?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Which time interval will be the largest?

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Latest stories

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