Brier News

YES

YES

Manifold

YES

YES

YES

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

NO

NO

[Posted] Analysis of "Relative Brier Score"

[Posted] Prediction Market Thoughts pt 3: The Holy Trinity of Bots

Prediction Market Thoughts pt 4: Convexity of Preference

Kessler Syndrome is Self-Defeating

Kessler Syndrome Mitigation through Ley Lines

Quantum Commodities

Surface-Orbiting Megastructures

Krugman Interstellar Trade Redux: The Economic Twin Paradox

The Quantum Milkman

The Production of Outer Space: Communism in Orbit

Quantum GMW Transform

Have LLM chat assistants been useful to me? An analysis

NO