Brier News

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

4 months ago

Will BrierFoxForecast surpass Manifold's 7d avg DAU count by the end of 2025

Oct 22, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.97%chance

2816042

OptionVotes

YES

3765

801

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Feb 21, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.14%chance

497055

OptionVotes

YES

1145

844

LLM reaches >90% Brier score on Prophet Arena by 2026?

Aug 18, 8:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

123494

OptionVotes

YES

4358

229

What is the Brier score of my local weather station? (Forecast whether my weather forecast is casting for accuracy.)

Dec 1, 6:42 PMDec 31, 3:15 PM

18.01%chance

103185

OptionVotes

YES

2133

469

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

16.71%chance

92023

OptionVotes

YES

2233

448

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

141082

OptionProbability

Better

The same

Worse

Will Brier Fox Forecast be more popular than Manifold Markets by the end of 2025?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.55%chance

9893

OptionVotes

YES

774

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

2201

OptionProbability

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Apr 23, 2:56 AM

456

OptionProbability

YES

112

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

Dec 29, 7:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?

Dec 14, 10:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Prediction Markets
AI Modeling
Business
University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy
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4 months ago

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Will BrierFoxForecast surpass Manifold's 7d avg DAU count by the end of 2025

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

LLM reaches >90% Brier score on Prophet Arena by 2026?

What is the Brier score of my local weather station? (Forecast whether my weather forecast is casting for accuracy.)

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Will Brier Fox Forecast be more popular than Manifold Markets by the end of 2025?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?

Latest stories

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