Brier News

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

6 months ago

Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?

Jan 28, 7:50 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

233450

OptionProbability

Manifold

Nate Silver

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

1895

528

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

141082

OptionProbability

Better

The same

Worse

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

2201

OptionProbability

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

Feb 4, 3:17 AMJan 1, 3:13 AM

57.82%chance

7192

OptionVotes

YES

351

256

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Apr 23, 2:56 AM

456

OptionProbability

YES

112

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

Dec 29, 7:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Prediction Markets
AI Modeling
Business
University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy
Authors
5
6 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

Brier News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Brier

Prediction markets for Brier

Prediction markets for Brier

Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?

Brier Fox Forecasts Stock

Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram