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Prediction markets for Buy from Hold
Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29
Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM
19.69%chance
920668
OptionVotes
15088
92
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM
13.99%chance
5911578
OptionVotes
2551
415
OptionProbability
459
432
Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?
Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM
13.4%chance
153312
OptionVotes
2542
393
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM
44.78%chance
473044
OptionVotes
984
961
OptionProbability
92
87
85
73
54
45
32
0
High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2026? (add answers)
Jan 16, 9:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
152117
OptionProbability
90
90
89
88
88
61
60
60
59
56
53
44
41
38
35
34
31
Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?
Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5%chance
16826
OptionVotes
436
23
OptionProbability
95
2
2
0
Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
47.95%chance
5350
OptionVotes
1042
960
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
Jun 7, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.53%chance
13302
OptionVotes
121
94
Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM
56.94%chance
1150
OptionVotes
1150
870
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