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Prediction markets for century
will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
32.8%chance
2820756
OptionVotes
6324
5475
Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?
Jun 17, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
98.99%chance
410143
OptionVotes
9058
62
Will humans on average live to 100 years old by the end of this century?
Nov 2, 4:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.32%chance
465375
OptionVotes
999
931
Will any human spacecraft reach another star system by the end of the 21st century?
Nov 11, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
50.27%chance
312437
OptionVotes
1194
720
OptionVotes
1135
767
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
We will have a cure for cancer by the end of the century
Feb 23, 5:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
65.24%chance
17772
OptionVotes
1051
966
OptionVotes
1061
905
Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?
Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM
59.37%chance
15591
OptionVotes
1123
765
Will faithless electors change a US Presidential election outcome in the 21st century?
Aug 22, 9:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM
37.45%chance
16510
OptionVotes
1166
412
Will there be a war between the US and China this century?
May 11, 3:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.29%chance
13479
OptionVotes
1030
945
Will "Investigating the Chart of the Century: Why i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 19, 5:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.73%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1099
985
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