CEREMONY News

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Car chase scene

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

World capital other than London appears on screen

Hacking electronics of some form

Q appears

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

Blue-eyed Bond

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

Prison/jail scene

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Black market trafficking

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Desert scene

Nazis (neo- counts)

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond has facial hair

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond will be in a submarine

Bond goes to space

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Orgy

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Underwater combat

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

A pinball machine will appear.

Pirates

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Assplay

Bond plays Russian roulette

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond won't be Caucasian

A hamburger appears on screen

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

Nuclear explosion

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Gay sex scene

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Vampires

Bond vapes

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

The fourth wall is broken

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Make banana bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Add garlic

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

put ketchup and cheese on it

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Brush on an egg wash

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Make the bread taste good

Bake for 15 more minutes

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Taste the bread

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Increase water by 50 g

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Strawberry jelly filling

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

it needs more salt

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]

The death of Jimmy Carter

The Paris Olympics closing ceremony

The launch of GPT-5

The release of the iPhone 16

Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections

Bitcoin reaches $100k

Elon Musk has another child

GTA 6 release

The death of Joe Biden

The war in Ukraine comes to an end

A Category 5 hurricane hits the US

Peak Oil Demand

The Enhanced Games opening ceremony

Man’s return to the moon

EV sales in the USA overtake ICE

Will Smith attends the Oscars

Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold

Bitcoin falls to $30k

A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Donald Trump goes to jail

Prince William and Kate divorce

YES

YES

Will she be involved in national media coverage or controversy within 12 months?

She will release at least one book

She will run for political office in the next 2/3 years

She will take Charlie’s place in public debates and public appearances.

NO

NO

NO

YES

NO

Demolished before 2030

Taken over by the city before 2028

Taken over by a government entity other than the city before 2028

Finished without tearing down before 2031