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Chao News

    Prediction markets for Chao

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Nikolai Patrushev

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

    Aleksey Dyumin

    Sergei Shoigu

    Aleksandr Bortnikov

    Sergey Naryshkin

    Sergei Sobyanin

    Ramzan Kadyrov

    Alexey Navalny

    Yulia Navalny

    44

    13

    10

    7

    7

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Ernie

    Joshua

    Chris/Strutheo

    Jensen Huang

    Sundar Pichai

    Larry Page

    Sergey Brin

    Bill Gates

    Bram Cohen

    Vitalik Buterin

    Demis Hassabis

    Lex Fridman

    Xi Jinping

    Kim Jong Un

    Jeff Dean

    Isaac King

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Ilya Sutskever

    Austin (manifold)

    Glenn Shotwell

    Emad Mostaque

    Greg Brockman

    Bruce Schneier

    AGM (chaos monkey)

    Kind Edward

    Patrick Collison

    Balaji

    Stewart Butterfeld

    Prince Harry

    Tim Sweeney

    Peter Thiel

    Garry Tan

    Jessica Livingston

    Andrew Ng

    Robin Hanson

    Trump

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Marc Andreesen

    Larry Ellison

    Grimes

    Patrick McKenzie

    Travis Kalanick

    Lionel Messi

    James (manifold)

    Biden

    Mark Zuckerberg

    JK Rowling

    Meghan Markle

    Gavin Newsom

    Prince William

    Jack Dorsey

    Martin Shkreli

    Tyler Cowen

    Oprah Winfrey

    Paul Graham

    Beff Jezos

    Tim Ferriss

    Elon Musk

    Satya Nadella

    Taylor Swift

    Sam Altman

    Joe Rogan

    Jeff Bezos

    100

    100

    100

    88

    85

    73

    69

    68

    67

    66

    65

    64

    61

    58

    58

    57

    54

    52

    49

    49

    49

    49

    48

    48

    48

    48

    47

    46

    46

    45

    45

    45

    45

    45

    45

    44

    43

    43

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    38

    37

    32

    31

    26

    25

    21

    20

    20

    19

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    9

    5

    4

    4

    1

    OptionProbability

    Aliens

    EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

    EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

    Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

    Simulation Hypothesis

    Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

    UFOs are time travelers

    Holographic Principle

    UFOs are angels

    UFOs are psychic manifestations

    Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

    Other

    UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

    Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

    UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

    AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

    UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

    UFOs are magic

    13

    13

    12

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    3

    3

    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Tortaria

    Hunan Bistro

    Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

    Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

    Hill Country

    Carlotto

    Dominic Ansel Workshop

    BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

    Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

    Thai Villa

    Bhatti Indian Grill

    Brindle Room

    Osteria Morini

    Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

    Tao Downtown

    Strip House (44th + 5th)

    Keste Pizza

    Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

    Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

    Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

    Prince Street Pizza

    Dominic Ansel Kitchen

    Au Za'atar

    Rezdora

    Da Umberto

    Casa Mono

    Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

    The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

    Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

    Scarpetta

    Via Carota

    Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

    The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

    Japonica

    Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

    Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

    Naya (four closest locations must close)

    Katz's Delicatessen

    Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

    98

    98

    73

    52

    48

    46

    31

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    26

    26

    26

    26

    24

    24

    21

    21

    21

    21

    20

    19

    18

    18

    16

    12

    OptionProbability

    Knuckles the Echidna

    Miles “Tails” Prower

    Metal Sonic

    Sonic the Hedgehog - voiced by Ben Schwartz

    Dr. Robotnik - Jim Carrey portrays some Eggman / clone / impersonator

    Tom “Donut Lord” Wachowski

    Maddie “Pretzel Lady” Wachowski

    Agent Stone

    Dr. Robotnik - confirmed to be Eggman and not a clone / impersonator

    Ozzy the Golden Retriever

    Iblis

    Sonic the Hedgehog - Super Form

    Wade Whipple

    Big the Cat

    Gerald Robotnik

    Rouge the Bat

    Amy Rose

    Cream the Rabbit

    Metal Sonic - specifically Neo Metal or Metal Overlord Form

    Silver the Hedgehog

    Longclaw the Owl

    Jack Sinclair

    Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be the original Shadow

    ‘Ugly Sonic’ - a character whose appearance clearly alludes to the pre-backlash 2020 design

    Blaze the Cat

    Chaos

    Chief Pachacamac

    Tikal the Echidna

    Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be a clone or impersonator

    Sonic the Hedgehog - two Sonics (not impersonators) interact with each other as a result of time / space shenanigans

    Vector the Crocodile

    Espio the Chameleon

    Charmy Bee

    Eggman Nega

    Mephiles the Dark

    Zavok ❤️

    Infinite the Jackal

    Mighty the Armadillo

    Sonic the Hedgehog - Werehog Form

    Princess Elise

    85

    81

    80

    79

    66

    66

    66

    66

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    28

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    10

    Red Bull Racing Chaos Mega Market

    Jul 9, 9:03 PMJan 1, 9:53 PM
    3510

    OptionProbability

    Max Verstappen drives at least one race for RBR in 2026

    Christian Horner TP at another F1 team by start of 2026 season

    Laurent Mekies still RBR TP by July 9th 2026

    RBR wins another WDC or WCC before 2036

    Jonathan Wheatley returns to RBR by 2027

    Helmut Marko leaves RBR before 2027

    Christian Horner returns to RBR before 2032

    86

    61

    57

    55

    53

    50

    41

    OptionProbability

    🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

    🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

    🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

    🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

    💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

    Other

    🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

    👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

    🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

    🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

    🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

    🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

    21

    18

    14

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    OptionProbability

    After 2100/ Never (fundamental atmospheric chaos prevents this level of accuracy)

    Before 2040

    Before 2060

    Before 2100

    Before 2080

    49

    20

    16

    9

    7

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

    Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

    Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

    Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

    Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

    Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

    Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

    Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

    Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

    Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

    Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

    Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

    Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

    Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

    Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

    Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

    Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

    Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

    Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

    Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

    Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

    Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

    Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

    Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

    Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

    Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

    Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

    Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

    Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

    Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

    50

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    50