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Prediction markets for Chao
(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?
Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6461670
OptionProbability
44
13
10
7
7
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
100
100
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
58
57
54
52
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
9
5
4
4
1
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
525974
OptionProbability
13
13
12
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
65
57
53
53
53
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
67
17
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?
Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM
111654
OptionProbability
98
98
73
52
48
46
31
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
24
24
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
16
12
OptionProbability
85
81
79
72
66
66
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
28
24
24
24
24
24
24
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
10
OptionProbability
49
20
16
9
7
OptionProbability
53
50
50
47
42
41
39
Will "Catastrophe through Chaos" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 1, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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