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Prediction markets for Christian
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
1.76%chance
192416010
OptionVotes
3580
964
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
7.75%chance
10834087
OptionVotes
992
612
Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM
27.7%chance
9615260
OptionVotes
9665
3727
OptionVotes
963
955
OptionVotes
2211
452
Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
19.29%chance
555029
OptionVotes
2015
243
OptionVotes
136
100
Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
10.85%chance
122830
OptionVotes
2866
349
Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?
Aug 14, 5:41 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM
88.26%chance
102401
OptionVotes
2743
365
Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9.71%chance
32050
OptionVotes
3050
328
Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.5%chance
3256
OptionVotes
1214
969
Will the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Apr 14, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.95%chance
467
OptionVotes
131
77
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