OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
Jon Stewart
Michelle Obama
Raphael Warnock
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Wes Moore
Ro Khanna
Mark Cuban
Hunter Biden
Ruben Gallego
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Jared Polis
Amy Klobuchar
Mitch Landrieu
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Tim Walz
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Bernie Sanders
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Hakeem Jeffries
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Kathy Hochul
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Jamie Raskin
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
25
15
10
10
7
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
David Reich
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Sarah Paine
Nicholas Carlini
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Dean Ball
Demis Hassabis
Yann LeCun
Tyler Cowen
Dean Spears
Alec Radford
Amanda Askell
Jack Clark
Joscha Bach
Sundar Pichai
Gary Marcus
Ian Morris
Daniel Kokotajlo
Satya Nadella
Joe Henrich
Scott Alexander
Michael Dell
Noam Brown
Paul J Werbos
Holden Karnofsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
roon
Mira Murati
Hans Moravec
Zvi Mowshowitz
Ilya Sutskever
François Chollet
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Ajeya Cotra
Doris Taylor
Carl Shulman
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Janus @repligate
Nick Bostrom
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Andrej Karpathy
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Bill Gates
Joe Carlsmith
Tanner Greer
Tamay Besiroglu
Mustafa Suleyman
Nate Soares
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
Robert Caro
Barack Obama
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
100
100
100
100
99
59
50
34
32
30
29
28
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
21
20
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
10
9
8
7
6
6
OptionProbability
Rihanna
Serena Williams
Virat Kohli
Rafael Nadal
Neymar Jr.
Volodymyr Zekensky
Adam Driver
Jennifer Lawrence
Zack King
Luka Doncic
PewDiePie
Justin Bieber
Daniel Radcliffe
Manuel Neuer
Emma Stone
Any of the 7 BTS members
Selena Gomez
Any member of Blackpink
Taylor Swift
Michael Cera
Maria Sharapova
Markiplier
Marques Brownlee
Any member of Girl's Generation
Margot Robbie
Ben Johns (pickleball)
Adele
Simone Biles
Tom Holland
Palmer Luckey
Dwarkesh Patel
Halsey
Timothée Chalamet
Post Malone
Harry Styles
Kevin Durant
John Boyega
Drake
Ariana Grande
Alia Bhatt
Camille Lellouche
Sally Rooney
Shohei Ohtani
Patrick Collison
David Cross
Joji
Emotional Oranges (any member)
Tay Zonday
Barron Trump
The next US president excluding Trump & Vance
Andrew Huberman
Sam Altman
Jungkook
Logan Paul
MrBeast
Destiny
Max Verstappen
Magnus Carlsen
Lorde
MoistCritical
KSI
Emma Watson
Oreslan
Taylor Hill
Emelia Clarke
Pony Ma Huateng
Muqtada al-Sadr
G.E.M. (Gloria Tang)
Zhang Jike
Ritesh Agarwal
Jimin
Haley Joel Osment
Bruno Mars
Neeraj Chopra
Alia Al Mansoori
Naomi Osaka
Kylian Mbappe
Maisie Williams
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Zendaya
Dylan Wang
xQc
Billie Eilish
Hikaru Nakamura
Jenna Ortega
Lady Gaga
Robert Eggers
Emma Radacanu
Emma Chamberlain
Eric Rosen
Robert Pattinson
Yuna Kim
Leonardo DiCaprio
Eric Hansen
Ezra Miller
Jessie Eisenberg
Hans Niemann
Miley Cyrus
Lewis Hamilton
George Hotz
Wirtual
Vitalik Buterin
AOC
Greta Thunberg
Aella
Katy Perry
Lil Nas X
Scott Auckerman
Yuval Noah Harari
All members of Blackpink
Oprah Winfrey
Jennifer Aniston
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
67
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
28
25
23
22
18
18
17
7
5
5
OptionProbability
Victor Marx
Barbara Kirkmeyer
Scott Bottoms
Mark Baisley
Jason Ray Clark
Jason Mikesell
Stevan Gess
Jon Gray-Ginsberg
Robin Jones
Greg Lopez
Paul Lundeen
Other
77
15
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Michael Thorbjornsen lead Maverick McNealy?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
06-07, After Round 4 of The Memorial will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Xander Schauffele?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Tommy Fleetwood?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Tommy Fleetwood lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Wyndham Clark lead Max McGreevy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead John Rahm?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Scottie Scheffler?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Cameron Young lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Cameron Young lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
08-09, After Round 4 of The Wyndham Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
08-16, After Round 4 of The FedEx St. Jude Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Brooks Koepka lead Justin Rose?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Ben James lead Sam Burns?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?
03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-15, After Round 4 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Justin Thomas lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Justin Thoomas?
05-31, After Round 4 of The Charles Schwab will Rickie Fowler lead J.J. Spaun?
05-31, After Round 4 of The Charles Schwab will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Ben James lead Sam Burns?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will John Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Xander Schauffele?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
85
69
66
65
60
59
59
59
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
41
26
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Greg Brockman
Sam Altman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)
Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)
United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried
Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)
U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)
Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)
U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)
United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)
Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)
United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)
TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)
United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)
Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)
100
100
58
50
31
31
31
31
31
31
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Katherine Clark
Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG)
81
11
6
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1102
908
OptionProbability
Dick van Dyke
Bruce Willis
Jack Nicholson
Clint Eastwood
Matt Clark
Mel Brooks
William Shatner
70
50
50
50
50
37
22
OptionProbability
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
55
47
46
45

