Claude Opus News
Prediction markets for Claude Opus
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
1.01%chance
5525367
OptionVotes
9901
101
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
90
88
70
60
50
50
41
36
15
14
14
3
3
1
0
0
OptionProbability
44
41
7
4
2
1
1
1
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM
5.51%chance
2310079
OptionVotes
4205
460
OptionVotes
1940
515
Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?
Nov 26, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.18%chance
353637
OptionVotes
3030
330
Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
Jun 25, 9:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
4.59%chance
281282
OptionVotes
456
22
How many parameters does the new possibly-SOTA large language model, Claude 3 Opus, have?
Mar 5, 5:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25961
OptionProbability
44
21
21
8
5
1
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.67%chance
5765
OptionVotes
1747
572
Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.31%chance
6275
OptionVotes
1046
760
METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results?
Nov 24, 1:55 AMDec 24, 1:55 AM
40.01%chance
9156
OptionVotes
122
82
Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.08%chance
270
OptionVotes
1070
989
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