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Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
Nov 9, 1:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13%chance
112115251
OptionVotes
1303
961
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.5%chance
233794
OptionVotes
1584
631
OptionVotes
1892
528
[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA
Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4680
Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?
Apr 30, 8:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.74%chance
12395
OptionVotes
274
36
Will it be possible to post to manifold via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2025?
Dec 11, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
93.98%chance
3305
OptionVotes
395
25
Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings EOY 2025?
May 1, 10:59 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
369
OptionProbability
28
26
22
9
5
5
5
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.01%chance
12
OptionVotes
102
98
Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026?
Apr 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
70%chance
11
OptionVotes
2
1
Will an integration for guesstimate/squigglehub to Anthropic Claude's Model Context Protocol (MCP) exist by EOY2025
Dec 14, 9:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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