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Top stories

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Community Standards

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.43%chance

522883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

648

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

72363

OptionProbability

> 500,000

280,001–500,000

180,001–280,000

≤ 180,000

45

33

12

10

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will ZFC prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:26 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

9333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will ZFC prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.03%chance

4139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

In Mario Kart World, will players be able to reliably avoid highway tracks in public matchmaking in 2026?

Jan 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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