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Top stories

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Brazil Orders Meta to Remove AI Chatbots Sexualizing Children

Authors

10

15 hours ago

Prediction markets for Community Standards

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12877054

OptionProbability

Multiple counts of perjury

Massive fraud

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

33

31

26

10

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

Aug 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.3%chance

4112609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3823

834

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.9%chance

512833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

657

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.95%chance

121240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

3392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will ZFC prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.03%chance

4139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

2128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

51

Will glueballs be definitively observed experimentally by the end of 2035?

Apr 5, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.2%chance

892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

151

Will "Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 5, 12:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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