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Top stories

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Authors

7

1 year ago

Abacus Poll Puts Poilievre Conservatives Ahead as Affordability Angst Grows

Abacus Poll Puts Poilievre Conservatives Ahead as Affordability Angst Grows

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Conservatives

Will Colorado Proposition 137 (sporting goods tax for conservation) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Oct 6, 6:38 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

97.87%chance

1611026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8071

333

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

24.87%chance

287920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3511

1108

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

227665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4263

235

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1.62%chance

307635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6842

711

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

346153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2432

809

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.19%chance

315917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

516

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.53%chance

322998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1711

585

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

933

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.83%chance

12227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

941

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