A new Abacus Data survey indicates Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have edged ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals for the first time since Carney took office in March. The poll, conducted mostly before recent labour and trade developments, places Conservative support at 41 percent among decided voters, compared with 39 percent for the Liberals— a four-point drop for Carney’s party since early August. The shift is driven largely by mounting unease over affordability and the broader cost-of-living squeeze: 60 percent of respondents cited affordability as their top concern, far outpacing the economy, housing or health care. On economic issues the Conservatives are now viewed as the most capable party, while the Liberals retain an advantage on managing relations with U.S. President Donald Trump; 56 percent of those polled trust the Liberals on that file against 21 percent for the Conservatives, and 38 percent still rank Trump’s presidency as a leading political issue in Canada. Despite the national vote-intention lead for the Conservatives, a separate seat-projection model published by CanadianPolling on 25 August continues to forecast a Liberal majority, giving Carney’s party 199 of the House of Commons’ 338 seats versus 115 for the Conservatives. The diverging readings underscore how volatile voter sentiment remains ahead of the next federal election.