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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMDec 17, 1:59 PM

93.64%chance

628364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3839

261

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.43%chance

128234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15509

5886

Fed makes 3rd interest rate adjustment before EoY 2025?

Oct 30, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.82%chance

185448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4279

234

Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

Jan 22, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.15%chance

734985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

697

Will the CPI in the US exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis at any point before 2026?

Aug 17, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1%chance

133609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3451

100

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

31%chance

333257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

959

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.16%chance

532195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1450

782

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will the 12-month inflation rate announced in January 2026 be lower or equal than 3.0%

Nov 15, 11:55 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

5320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

820

Next month's trailing 12-month CPI above 3.0%?

Oct 24, 12:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.3%chance

5241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

38

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Economics
Business
Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole
Authors
5
4 months ago

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