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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMFeb 13, 1:59 PM

86.24%chance

739108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2504

399

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

38.39%chance

947396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

790

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

30.35%chance

333266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

979

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.55%chance

532215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

776

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average cross 50,000 by March 31, 2026, the end of the fiscal quarter.

Jan 7, 2:02 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

73.95%chance

6697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.91%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

Will the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?

Mar 22, 9:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.46%chance

755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

172

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Economics
Business
Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole
Authors
5
6 months ago

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