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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

74.91%chance

13625222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

579

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

36.43%chance

343356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

809

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.49%chance

562454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1705

712

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.08%chance

141426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?

May 16, 5:48 AMAug 4, 11:59 PM

51221

OptionProbability

No change

Increase

Decrease

70

22

8

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

43.62%chance

6590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

880

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will May 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 5, 11:13 PMJun 25, 12:25 PM

46.76%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?

Jun 21, 12:49 PMJul 14, 12:30 PM

21.44%chance

588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

61

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

49.5%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Economics
Business
Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole
Authors
5
10 months ago

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