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Top stories

Trump Orders New Census Excluding Undocumented Immigrants, Reviving Blocked Plan

Executive Orders

US Domestic Policy

Trump Orders New Census Excluding Undocumented Immigrants, Reviving Blocked Plan

Authors

44

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Country

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

22.09%chance

21534169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6371

4040

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.54%chance

10519156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15977

4201

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18315515

OptionProbability

UK

France

Other

Israel

UAE

Japan

India

Canada

South Korea

Germany

Russia

33

29

10

7

6

6

3

2

2

1

1

Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 5:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

178953

OptionProbability

India

UK

Other

China

Malaysia

Germany

Pakistan

Russia

France

35

23

16

7

5

4

4

3

3

Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?

Feb 7, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.48%chance

1308817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3118

1577

Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?

Apr 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.95%chance

907908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1967

1231

Will a U.S. citizen be deported to a foreign country for at least a month?

Apr 28, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:31 PM

66.14%chance

227390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13977

7154

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.49%chance

465652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?

Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.5%chance

241211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

1060

Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

Apr 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.21%chance

29950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

1865

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 7, 2025
Aug 7, 2025
US Elections
Executive Orders
US Domestic Policy
Trump Orders New Census Excluding Undocumented Immigrants, Reviving Blocked Plan
Authors
44
2 days ago

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