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Prediction markets for Country
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?
May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
22.09%chance
21534169
OptionVotes
6371
4040
Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]
Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.54%chance
10519156
OptionVotes
15977
4201
By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?
Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18315515
OptionProbability
33
29
10
7
6
6
3
2
2
1
1
Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2025?
Aug 7, 5:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
178953
OptionProbability
35
23
16
7
5
4
4
3
3
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
Feb 7, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.48%chance
1308817
OptionVotes
3118
1577
Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?
Apr 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
42.95%chance
907908
OptionVotes
1967
1231
Will a U.S. citizen be deported to a foreign country for at least a month?
Apr 28, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:31 PM
66.14%chance
227390
OptionVotes
13977
7154
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
59.49%chance
465652
OptionVotes
1212
825
Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?
Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
422639
OptionProbability
55
36
5
3
0
0
0
Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?
Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.5%chance
241211
OptionVotes
1938
1060
Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?
Apr 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.21%chance
29950
OptionVotes
2046
1865
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.8%chance
11360
OptionVotes
10122
9934
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