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Crazy News

    Prediction markets for Crazy

    What will Trump give Elon for his nickname?

    Jun 6, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:23 AM
    436197820

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Crazy Elon

    “drug addict elon” or similar

    Spacey Elon

    subsidy elon

    Loser Elon

    Whiny Elon

    The Man Who Lost His Mind

    Entitled elon

    Angry elon

    Incel Elon

    government subsidy guy

    Leon Musk

    Train wreck Elon

    slippery eel / eel elon

    Icky Elon

    musk the moocher

    Mr mars

    muskrat elon / elon muskrat

    Delusional elon

    evil elon

    rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

    felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

    elon husk

    ozempic elon

    elmo

    Phony Stark

    Failed Elon

    Space Cadet

    Exploding Rocket Man

    DOGE Boy

    No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

    Vriska Serket

    Elongated Muskrat

    Melon Husk

    Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

    Mars Man

    ev elon

    Slimy Elon

    Illegal Elon

    Emo Elon

    Little Elon

    Ketamine Elon

    Mediocre Musk

    Fat Elon

    Klon

    Space Boy

    E Elon

    ET Elon

    Elon of the Crimson Blade

    Medicare Elon

    Melon

    Xanax

    Ketamelon

    mental musk

    marsboy musk

    Elon Melon

    Murky Musk

    Ketamine Karen

    resolves no

    jetbrain

    elonious munk

    Lying Elon

    Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

    Musky Elon

    N/A

    Oh no!

    Elon The Con

    Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

    Low IQ Elon

    Erratic Elon

    Buddy

    Friend Elon

    Great Elon

    Fail-on

    Eblon

    Extraterrestrial

    solar

    Kooky elon

    The Best President

    Moron Musk

    squealin elon

    African Elon / afrikaan elon

    autistic Elon

    immigrant elon

    Evil Musk

    Elon musksnake

    That guy

    Eloon

    (This option will not resolve yes)

    Elon the idiot

    Schemin' Elon

    Elon the Pawn

    Off the Rails Elon

    Mr Musk

    Yilong Ma

    Mr Elon

    Mad Musk

    Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

    Special K

    55

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    Krantz Mechanism Demonstration

    Aug 11, 12:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    1210055

    OptionProbability

    If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.

    People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align AI.

    People should be paid for the beneficial data they produce to align the government.

    We can measure the variance in confidence between any two intelligent agent's finite list of various propositions they've evaluated.

    Analytic philosophers have had a mechanistically interpretable process (analytic reasoning) for aligning each other for thousands of years.

    Analytic arguments can be contained in constitutions.

    If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.

    Getting paid for analytically reasoning within a decentralized constitution is the same thing as getting paid to align ASI.

    Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.

    The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.

    Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.

    This is a convenient place to deny the argument from Krantz - https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6

    If 'Krantz' as an idea is more disruptive than Bitcoin was, then all the batshit crazy predictions @krantz has made make more sense.

    There’s more to life than AI alignment

    A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.

    Krantz is aimed at rapidly scaling a generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

    Danny Sheehan deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

    A solution to defining Wittgenstein's perfect language is the instrumental mechanism that is sufficiently capable of defining truth in a way that interpretably aligns AI decentrally.

    This is printing money.

    The founding fathers understood how to align artificial superintelligence (by allowing individuals to vote on a decentralized constitution).

    We should krantz (the process of evaluating Krantz).

    We should know whether we are aligned with each other.

    Aligning Krantz (the constitution of all propositions) is the last job humans need to do.

    The process of "fairly aligning AI" is the same process as "fairly voting on a consistent language".

    If we build mechanistically uninterpretable superintelligence, everybody dies.

    I consent to having my opinions, which have been verified by me within krantz, to be used in natural law petitions to advocate on my behalf.

    If everyone can prove what they want government to do, we wouldn't need a government.

    What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".

    For any degree N that you want an AI to be aligned, there exists K an amount of Krantz data that can interpretably acheive that alignment.

    If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.

    The primary economic mechanisms in the world should be aimed at determining whether propositions are true.

    If we recorded every proposition on a blockchained ledger that we allowed everyone to express their confidence on, we would all communicate orders of magnitude better and solve all the problems in a transparent public domain.

    Wiggenstien's compatabilitism is correct and every philosophy/religion is an accurate expression of truth (natural law) in a unique imperfect language.

    All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.

    The "particles" in the standard model are actually just abstract points in flat space that represent modular series of events.

    The standard model is a finite subset of the infinite set of modular events that exist.

    We should all be aligned with each other.

    Krantz is a culture of language movement.

    We can stop further dangerous scaling of ML based AI if Eliezer Yudkowsky listens to Krantz.

    Aliens are real.

    If someone allows ASI to be grown, they are either not in control of the planet or incompetent.

    A congressman's primary job is to survey his constituency on what actions he should take.

    It will be a philosopher of language that aligns AI.

    Aliens being real is more important for the public to know than the existential risk of ASI.

    If competent people are in charge, they will not allow ASI to be grown.

    The X platform could easily be converted into a decentralized school that secures a job and means for competition for everyone in a post labor economy.

    It's worth paying people to vote on these because it's really helpful to see everyone's opinion.

    If Krantz is a man AND all men are logical THEN Krantz is logical.

    Artificial superintelligence is a paraphrase of a society effectively communicating via the krantz mechanism.

    An ideal economy directly rewards valuable contributions and verification of a decentralized ledger of record that everyone can access and work for.

    If you can think of important facts that should be evaluated, you should put them here.

    Our social contract should retroactively reward contributions to the public domain.

    The rules that define the operation of this function can be defined within the function.

    This system should allow the construction of arguments where each proposition is a link to another proposition on the list.

    The X platform should be an open feed of propositions like this such that any humanity verified person can earn credit for defining a confidence and importance.

    Natural law entitles humans the right to define propositions like this on a decentralized ledger such that if they are important to society, then society will have the means to reward that declaration.

    If there were a decentralized constitution (like this) that every human could freely and securely add propositions to and vote their confidence and importance on, then government, corporations and money would be obsolete.

    Providing input to this function (at scale) is the only job we need to maintain autonomy from superintelligence.

    We ought build a school that fairly pays citizens to learn how to be good citizens AND this is a function that does that THERFORE we ought build this.

    This is what the founding fathers wanted (a collective state controlled by a constitution that everyone can vote on instead of representatives that make decisions for us).

    We have the technology to allow everyone citizen to directly vote on the constitution.

    These propositions ought have primary keys that can be referenced in logical expressions.

    The distinction between 'growing' ASI (using trillions of dollars of GPUs and oil) and 'training' ASI (using krantz collective reasoning) is important.

    Krantz data is money.

    This is what the X feed ought look like (a feed of propositions that we can earn money for evaluating), because that would allow us to communicate more effectively as a society.

    We could be printing our own money by communicating well.

    If a decentralized interpretable superintelligence paid individuals to answer true/false questions that help it align the truth, it could use that truth to control the world.

    What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".

    The max anyone should wager on a given proposition is 100 because your wager is intended to represent your confidence.

    The Universe is infinite, continuous, and filled with infinite consciousness.

    The purpose of life is to communicate.

    Evil is a specific form of communication (primative).

    Humans ought focus on mining krantz data instead of coprimes.

    If we can prove people will not do bad things in the future, there is no reason to punish them for bad things they have done in the past.

    The only justified fear, is the fear of ignorance (partial knowledge).

    Intellectual full spectrum dominance is the most noble aim.

    If we had a tremendous amount of krantz data, we could use a simple interpretable gofai algorithm to determine the most beneficial proposition a given user ought evaluate next (based on the variance of their ontology with society).

    You can map full strings of complex arguments (like the entirety of Fermat's last theorem) on a system of this nature.

    Intelligent agents evolve through 4 specific forms of peer control (communication) first is physical, second is reputational, third is emotional, and forth is rational.

    There is a hierarchy of communication (4, lowest) physical (3) reputation (2) emotional (1, highest) rational.

    The reason we punish people for doing bad things is to prevent them from doing bad things in the future.

    The speed limit of light is a property intrinsic to the particles in the standard model and doesn't apply to non-standard particles.

    Society Library has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

    Manifold should consider these changes.

    The ultimate moral good is to communicate.

    If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.

    We can prove what we want government (or a superintelligence) to do.

    The bitcoin community should buy X from Elon and convert it into a decentralized school that gives people abstract points for doing philosophy.

    ASI would not kill everyone if we actually trained it.

    Money only has value if other people understand why it has value.

    CYCCORP has the most generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning.

    The message of krantz is being suppressed because it is not understood properly.

    If our intellectual labor is not fairly rewarded, we are not truly free.

    Aligning AI is an infinite task (it can't be acheived, only approximated).

    Open immigration should be allowed into the US.

    The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture is true.

    The Hodge conjecture is true.

    In three space dimensions and time, given an initial velocity field, there exists a vector velocity and a scalar pressure field, which are both smooth and globally defined, that solve the Navier–Stokes equations.

    The Riemann hypothesis is true.

    P = NP

    Yang–Mills theory exists and satisfies the standard of rigor that characterizes contemporary mathematical physics, in particular constructive quantum field theory.

    The mass of all particles of the force field predicted by the Yang-Mills theory are strictly positive.

    If we all share the same confidence for every proposition, we are all aligned with each other.

    Wittgenstein's perfect language meets the worthy successor criteria.

    My congressman ought be responsible for acknowledging my expressed opinions and acting in accordance with them.

    Induction is not justified. (Hume's problem)

    Nature is uniform. (principle of uniformity in nature)

    Aliens are real and we are in a simulation to learn how to communicate.

    We can measure whether two intelligent agents are aligned.

    ASI would kill everyone if we actually grew it.

    Abortions are ethically bad.

    Abortions should be illegal.

    P(doom) is less than 0.1.

    Our information economy allows poor people to insert important ideas into the public domain such that others will find them if they ought to.

    The electron is a point particle.

    The Krantz mechanism cannot map this premise.

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    OptionProbability

    My Little Pony

    Transformers

    Pokemon cards

    minecraft

    Tamagotchi

    Pogo stick

    Operation board game

    Gameboy

    PEZ Dispenser

    Ken doll (barbie)

    Beyblades

    Hess trucks

    Crazy Bones / Go Gos

    Metal-tipped lawn darts

    100

    100

    86

    73

    71

    68

    66

    59

    58

    57

    42

    34

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    18

    OptionProbability

    Fort Knox will pass audit. All gold is accounted for.

    Fort Knox's gold reserve Is completely full (95% or more)

    Fort Knox's gold reserve is completely empty (5% or less)

    Fort Knox will fail administration audit, but have all gold accounted for.

    Fort Knox was missing gold, but recently returned. (Within last 2 years)

    Fort Knox will fail audit. Large amount of gold is not accounted for.

    Fort Knox will pass administration audit, but some gold is not accounted for.

    Other

    Something else crazy. (Something like finding a UFO, Ark of the Covenant, Emerald Tablets of Thoth, ect...)

    33

    22

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    8

    8

    7

    6

    4

    1

    Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2073?

    Aug 19, 1:09 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    54.25%chance
    13569

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1045

    911

    OptionProbability

    "IRON MAIDEN"

    "MR. BLUE SKY"

    "BOOGIE WONDERLAND" by Earth, Wind & Fire

    "HOTEL CALIFORNIA" by Eagles

    "LOVELY DAY" by Bill Withers

    "SABOTAGE" by Beastie Boys

    "WILD YOUNG HEARTS" by Noisettes

    "ATOMIC CITY" by U2

    "CEMETERY GATES" by Pantera

    "HOT STUFF" by Donna Summer

    "LOW RIDER" by War

    "RUBBERBAND MAN" by The Spinners

    "HOUSE OF THE RISING SUN" by The Animals

    "SIGN YOUR NAME" by Sananda Maitreya

    "BLURRYFACE" by Twenty One Pilots

    "EMPIRE STATE OF MIND" by Jay-z

    "MAKING MIRRORS" by Gotye

    "CHAPMAN" (Tracy Chapman)

    "I'M OUTTA LOVE" by Anastacia

    "HIT THE ROAD JACK" by Ray Charles

    "TOXICITY" by System of a Down

    "ENJOY THE SILENCE" by Depeche Mode

    "CRAZY IN LOVE" by Beyoncé

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    OptionProbability

    Ken doll (barbie)

    Pogo stick

    PEZ Dispenser

    Hess trucks

    Operation board game

    Pokemon cards

    Tamagotchi

    minecraft

    Beyblades

    Crazy Bones / Go Gos

    Gameboy

    Metal-tipped lawn darts

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    16

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    6

    Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2048?

    Aug 19, 1:04 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    43%chance
    9185

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    219

    189

    Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2098?

    Aug 19, 1:07 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    67.95%chance
    7185

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    192

    154

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    144

    69

    OptionProbability

    I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

    Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

    Will get cavity preventing bacteria

    Japan JET Reunion 2025

    I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

    Pickleball tournament

    I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

    I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

    I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

    Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

    AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

    Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

    Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

    Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

    Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

    Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

    I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

    I set a personal daily mileage record

    Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

    Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

    Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

    Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

    Will go to a natal conference again

    Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

    Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

    Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

    Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

    Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

    Get over 1k users for my browser extension

    Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

    I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

    I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution

    Browser extension to add metadata on all people's names, relating to their offspring number, success, etc

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