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Cry For Me News

    Prediction markets for Cry For Me

    OptionProbability

    See a bear

    Flat tire

    Hitch a lift

    Ride through a thunderstorm

    make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot

    fall off the bike

    Make use of the WarmShowers network

    Exceed a speed of 35mph

    Have sex while on tour

    Cycle >65 miles in one day

    Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through

    Get sunburnt

    Be chased by a dog

    Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]

    Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)

    Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)

    rained on

    Broken spoke

    Try a new food and love it!

    Encounter road closure

    See a snake

    someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)

    Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle

    See a cat with 3+ kittens

    Make it to the end without any further broken spokes

    End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)

    Meet an online friend IRL

    Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day

    Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)

    Three or more flat tires

    Notice a custom license plate that you find funny

    experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)

    Try a new food and hate it!

    Cycle >110 miles in one day

    Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle

    get invited to someone's church

    Cry

    Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty

    End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)

    Broken chain

    Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)

    3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market

    Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve

    Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy

    Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]

    Get ill enough that you skip a day.

    Someone asks if you know Prince Harry

    Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado

    Be hit by an automobile

    Have animals access your food while camping

    Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke

    Have bike stolen

    Buy a new bike

    10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

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    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    92

    82

    79

    72

    67

    66

    63

    50

    50

    47

    44

    37

    31

    20

    19

    18

    15

    13

    12

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    3

    OptionProbability

    Hytale

    Left 4 Dead 3

    Far Cry 8

    Portal 3

    Star Craft 3

    Team Fortress 3

    Grand Theft Auto 7

    Counter Strike 3

    Crysis 4

    Star Citizen

    Fable 4

    Physint (Kojima stealth game)

    Saints Row (6th main game)

    Age of Empires 5

    Red Dead Redemption 3

    Banjo Kazooie 3

    Tekken 9

    Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)

    Riot's MMORPG

    Armored Core 7

    Fallout 5

    Bloody Roar 5

    A Plague Tale 3

    Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)

    Kingdom Hearts 4

    Dead or Alive 7

    Bayonetta 4

    Half Life 3

    Devil May Cry 6

    Mass Effect 5

    rivals of aether 3

    Soul Calibur 7

    Mega Man 12

    Dragon Quest 12

    Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15

    Dynasty Warriors 10

    Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)

    Final Fantasy 18

    Earth Defense Force 7

    Radio the Universe

    Dynasty Warriors 11

    Little Nightmares 3

    Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves

    Crackdown 4

    Dead Island 3

    Dead Space 4

    Pikmin 5

    Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6

    BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)

    Under Night In-Birth 3

    ARK Survival Evolved 2

    Mario Kart 10

    Diablo 5

    Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)

    Monaco 2

    Elder Scrolls 6

    Marathon

    Far Cry 7

    Final Fantasy 17

    Street Fighter 7

    The Sims 5

    Persona 6

    Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)

    Resident Evil 9

    Wolf Among Us 2

    Civilization 8

    Hearts of Iron 5

    Need for Speed (26th main game)

    Tropico 7

    Gran Turismo 8

    King of Fighters 16

    Guilty Gear (after Strive)

    Haunted Chocolatier

    Skate 4

    ARMA 4

    Splatoon 4

    Control 2

    2XKO

    Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2

    Virtua Fighter 6

    Command and Conquer 5

    Gears of War 6

    Witcher 4 Polaris

    Europa Universalis 5

    S&box (Sandbox)

    Grand Theft Auto 6

    Silksong (Hollow Knight)

    deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)

    Outer Worlds 2

    Silent Hill f (the next main game)

    Killing Floor 3

    Death Stranding 2

    Mario Kart 9

    Monster Hunter Wilds

    Civilization 7

    Slitterhead

    Rivals of Aether 2

    Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)

    Frostpunk 2

    Prince of Persia after Lost Crown

    Hades 2

    90

    89

    87

    86

    85

    82

    81

    79

    69

    63

    63

    62

    59

    58

    57

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    56

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    54

    51

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    40

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    34

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    30

    29

    29

    28

    28

    25

    24

    23

    22

    18

    14

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    14

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    11

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    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    What will happen to me in 2025? [Add Answers]

    Jan 1, 8:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    5817347

    OptionProbability

    Getting a new girlfriend

    Getting depressed

    Starting a new hobby

    Getting a certification/degree

    Breaking a personal record/achievement

    Meeting a celebrity

    Recovering from depression

    Having sex

    Going on 3 dates

    Attending a funeral

    eat a banana

    Eating a shrimp

    eat meat of any bird

    Getting vaccinated

    Winning a prize/money/giveaway

    Getting a sincere compliment from a stranger on the street

    Being happy

    Reading 3 books

    Stopping with therapy

    Having sex in a different country

    Eating a potato chip

    Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)

    Getting a new job

    Crying at the cinema

    Either donating more to charity, or donating to a more cost effective charity, than last year

    Having sex with 3 different people

    Losing my mana streak

    Getting a new house

    Getting a new car

    Finding money on the street

    Running an official running event

    Using LSD with someone who hasn't done it before

    Trying 3 new recreational drugs

    Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)

    Learning a new language

    Getting shit on by a bird

    Going on a holiday alone

    Doing drugs with my mother

    Receiving a text message or call from someone who I haven't spoken in 3+ years

    Joining a sports team/club

    Joining a new or other political party

    Getting drinks with my first ex-girlfriend

    Getting Covid-19

    Crashing in a 2nd bicycle accident

    Losing another family member

    Making a viral social media post

    Being mistaken for someone famous

    Winning a competition/award

    Starting a blog/substack/podcast

    Experiencing a natural disaster

    Getting a new nickname at my future job

    Getting a game console

    Starting a side business

    Moving to a different city/country

    Developing a chronic health condition

    Breaking the screen of my smartphone

    Attending an Ayahuasca ceremony

    Hospitalized (24H+)

    Getting hearing aids

    Getting a medical operation

    Getting back with my ex

    Getting a STD

    Getting someone pregnant

    Getting a new pet

    Experiencing war

    Attending a wedding

    Getting married/engaged

    Attending a baby shower

    Having more than 10K streams on an AI song I made

    Deciding to get an abortion

    Suing a contraceptive company because the contraceptive failed.

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    87

    75

    59

    57

    57

    55

    54

    53

    50

    50

    48

    43

    43

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    2

    OptionProbability

    Team will be scoreless for a quarter

    Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback

    Winning team has more total yards

    First play from scrimmage is a rush

    Opening kickoff result is a touchback

    Last play is 'victory formation'

    Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration

    Player crying during national anthem

    Quarterback runs in for a touchdown

    Announcer says "goat"

    Player gets carted off the field

    All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)

    Current or former US President in attendance

    Announcer says "tush push"

    First score is a touchdown

    Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

    Team that scores last wins the game

    Score is tied again after 0-0

    Broadcast uses video from pylon camera

    Both teams score in 1st quarter

    Failed 4th down attempt

    Gatorade shower color is yellow/green

    An administrative timeout is taken

    Player goes into the blue tent

    Winning team has more passing yards

    Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown

    Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made

    Holding call in 4th quarter

    Taylor Swift is at the game

    Chains used to measure first down 1+ times

    WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points

    First turnover is an interception

    Head coach throws a challenge flag

    Tom Brady is at the game

    Super Bowl is won by a bird team

    First score is a field goal

    Coin toss is 'heads'

    Coin toss is 'tails'

    National anthem is over 2 minutes

    Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

    Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

    Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

    50+ yard field goal is made

    Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

    Any player scores 2+ touchdowns

    Winning margin is 10+ points

    Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

    Kicker is iced

    2 point conversion attempted

    Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game

    Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs

    Any player scores 7+ points individually

    Ruling on the field gets overturned by review

    Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game

    No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game

    Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer

    Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given

    Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions

    Tush Push touchdown is made

    Injury timeout is taken

    Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd

    [1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]

    [Total score] > [Longest field goal made]

    First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics

    Any player has a 60+ yard reception

    Both teams complete their first pass attempt

    Special teams touchdown

    Onside kick attempt

    Player shown eating a snack on the sideline

    Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

    Altercation occurs between a player and a coach

    Trick play results in positive yardage

    Both teams have a 4th quarter lead

    Kick is missed

    Successful 2-point conversion

    First drive of game is a '3 and out'

    Team leading at halftime loses

    Live animal enters the field of play

    50+ yard return

    Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

    Player retires immediately after game

    Backup QB gets put in the game

    A player catches the ball with one hand

    Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

    No penalties in the 4th quarter

    Any player successfully hurdles a defender

    Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl

    Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

    Unauthorized person gets on the field of play

    Winning team has more turnovers

    At least one team has 0 points at halftime

    Announcer says “hawk-eye”

    Team has 5+ sacks

    Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl

    [LX total score] > [LIX total score]

    Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)

    A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown

    Announcer says "stud"

    Team is a first time super bowl winner

    A player's jersey gets torn

    Unauthorized person touches midfield logo

    Player gets ejected from the game

    Score is tied at half-time

    Points scored in the first 90 seconds

    Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP

    Team wins by exactly one point

    QB catches a pass from any player

    Kick is successfully blocked

    There is a doink

    No rushing touchdowns scored

    Pick 6 occurs

    Game goes to OT

    Successful 'hail mary' pass is made

    Final score is scorigami

    A safety is scored

    Any player to score an octopus

    Super Bowl MVP not from winning team

    Stadium blackout occurs

    Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)

    85

    79

    77

    75

    75

    69

    69

    67

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    66

    60

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    55

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    34

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    31

    28

    26

    26

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    23

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    20

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    16

    15

    14

    14

    13

    12

    11

    10

    9

    9

    7

    5

    4

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1016

    985

    OptionProbability

    Monster Hunter WIlds

    Red Dead Redemption 3

    Haunted Chocolatier

    Far Cry 7

    Fable

    Elder Scrolls 6

    Hades 2

    Grand Theft Auto 6

    Kingdom Hearts 4

    Death Stranding 2

    S&box

    Slitterhead

    The Last of Us 3

    Killing Floor 3

    Silksong

    Persona 6

    Civilization 7

    2XKO

    Skate 4

    Black Myth: Wukong

    Rivals of Aether 2

    Splatoon 4

    Frostpunk 2

    Hearts of Iron 5

    ARMA 4

    90

    89

    87

    84

    78

    72

    65

    60

    59

    59

    52

    50

    50

    40

    37

    34

    33

    29

    27

    27

    24

    21

    18

    16

    10

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1455

    838

    If @Austin's wife or child died, would he cry?

    Aug 26, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    73.28%chance
    221769

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1070

    702

    OptionProbability

    Life's a bitch and then you die

    "There is water at the bottom of the ocean" - Talking Heads

    "It's not a cry that you hear at night, it's not somebody who has seen the light, it's a cold and it's a broken hallelujah"

    "Take me where the future is lying, St Elmo's Fire!"

    "I believe your parents did the best job they knew how to do"

    "If I could fall into the sky, do you think time would pass us by?"

    "Like Hephaestion who died, Alexander's lover."

    "The secret of any victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious"

    The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Tori Amos taken as a whole

    "These bastards stole their power from the victims of the Us v. Them years, wrecking all things virtuous and true"

    "Don't go making phony calls, only dial the seven-digit numbers you used to."

    "Heaven is a place where nothing ever happens" -Heaven, Talking Heads

    "There's things to be done all over the world but let's rebuild America first"

    "Don't you have somewhere to be at 7:30?" -When You Die, MGMT

    "Second chances never matter, people never change"

    "Capitalism has made it this way; old fashioned fascism will take it away"

    "And I dare not preach what I don't understand"

    "Gotta do what you can just to keep your love alive Tryin' not to confuse it with what you do to survive In '69 I was twenty-one and I called the road my own I don't know when that road turned onto the road I'm on"

    The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Eurythmics taken as a whole

    "Jesus is just alright with me"

    94

    88

    80

    76

    74

    74

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    41

    41

    31

    26

    19

    17

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1062

    770

    Michael's To-Read List

    Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    9347

    OptionProbability

    [Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

    Advanced Portfolio Management

    Option Volatility & Pricing

    Njal's Saga

    The Bostonians

    The History of the Peloponnesian War

    Middlemarch

    Winds of Winter, lmao

    The Histories

    Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

    Children of Time

    Romance of the Three Kingdoms

    Catch-22

    The Crying of Lot 49

    The Storm Before the Storm

    88

    85

    83

    83

    76

    76

    76

    69

    66

    64

    63

    50

    50

    50

    50

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    125

    115

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