Death News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Death
OptionProbability
83
9
5
1
1
0
0
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.99%chance
10741945
OptionVotes
11036
9044
OptionProbability
36
35
13
9
7
Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
Oct 22, 5:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.3%chance
5819870
OptionVotes
1366
428
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.56%chance
8517148
OptionVotes
2279
1711
Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death?
Mar 24, 1:48 AMSep 16, 4:59 AM
54.45%chance
241508
OptionVotes
1149
845
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM
51.25%chance
331312
OptionVotes
1075
906
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM
19.77%chance
12994
OptionVotes
3413
2468
Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?
Dec 17, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.66%chance
14971
OptionVotes
10560
7294
Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?
Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.22%chance
22897
OptionVotes
1135
961
What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?
Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.96%chance
9573
OptionVotes
372
367