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Top stories

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Death

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

17.44%chance

10148588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

1332

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11866

8858

Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?

May 24, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

17.93%chance

28335397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2133

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

71.19%chance

8834517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

246

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.67%chance

10224340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2508

1542

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10322729

OptionProbability

Heart Attack

Other

Stroke

Assassination

Cancer

38

27

16

10

9

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8616676

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Palantir

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Alibaba

Mistral

16

16

15

14

11

10

7

6

4

1

1

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Dec 14, 11:29 PMJan 1, 3:00 AM

46.28%chance

1397375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

877

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

Feb 10, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.44%chance

213777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3988

1334

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.91%chance

25971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

957

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

10588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

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