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Top stories

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Ron Gilbert Unveils ‘Death by Scrolling’ Roguelike at Gamescom

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Death

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31274146

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

85

10

2

1

1

0

0

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.75%chance

10842699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11769

8879

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

22%chance

9435751

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

884

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

6226670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

658

What will be Trump's cause of death?

Mar 31, 8:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9922595

OptionProbability

Heart Attack

Other

Stroke

Assassination

Cancer

38

29

17

10

6

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.77%chance

9219446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

1512

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516349

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

17

13

13

10

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?

Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

51.25%chance

331312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

906

Will Tetraspace's True Death be counterfactually because they cryocrastinated?

Dec 17, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.53%chance

151021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10547

7344

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.22%chance

22897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

961

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

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