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Die Hard News

Bruce Willis Moved to 24/7 Care Home as Dementia Progresses, Wife Says

Bruce Willis Moved to 24/7 Care Home as Dementia Progresses, Wife Says

49

5 months ago

Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?

Apr 28, 11:11 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

89.46%chance

328441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2787

519

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

65445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?

Jan 24, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.42%chance

371200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

765

Which of these movie franchises with 5 entries will get a 6th released before Jan 1st 2028?

Jan 19, 3:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15795

OptionProbability

Bourne

Pirates of the Caribbean

Evil Dead

Insidious

John Wick

The Purge

Final Destination

Shaft

Scary Movie

Rambo

Spy Kids

Indiana Jones

Die Hard

95

94

87

85

79

58

34

34

34

30

27

25

21

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?

Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.29%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

923

Will semaglutide be shown to cause thyroid cancer in humans at a nontrivial rate by 2027?

Nov 12, 11:34 PMNov 16, 7:59 AM

3%chance

1234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

9

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

43

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jose Luis Ricon LOL/ROFL so hard he will almost die in 2025/2026?

Aug 9, 6:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.06%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

What news headline would destroy your net worth the most?

Oct 16, 5:55 AM

00

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