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Prediction markets for Diet

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

If Eliezer Yudkowsky tried diet and exercise for 6 months, would he lose a reasonable amount of weight?

Nov 14, 8:15 AMNov 21, 10:59 PM

83.19%chance

285530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

36

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.78%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

What dietary interventions will I be convinced to try for at least 4 months by EOY 2025?

Nov 1, 7:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14720

OptionProbability

Reduce/remove alcohol

Vegan

Intermittent Fasting

Reduce/remove gluten

Reduce/remove seed oils

Vegetarian diet

Use potassium chloride instead of salt

Keto

Take men's multivitamin daily

B12 and omegas (if you go vegan)

Low FODMAP

Reduce/remove salt

61

48

44

43

42

40

38

37

36

35

35

29

Will I have a heart attack or stroke in the next five years if I continue on a ruminant diet?

Apr 17, 1:41 AMMay 1, 4:59 AM

26.32%chance

10718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

209

Will the "wild parrot diet" (eating what parrots eat) be shown to be healthier than eating the "standard American diet"?

May 4, 11:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.83%chance

10334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

576

331

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Dec 22, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.07%chance

4132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

73

Will almond milk in tetrapak have lower microplastic concentrations than diet Coke

Nov 15, 3:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

Has John Carmack lost more than 2 IQ points due to toxins from all the diet coke he has been drinking?

Oct 5, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.06%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

119

Before EOY2026, will there be a study showing the effect of diet soda on inflammatory markers?

Mar 1, 5:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.4%chance

27

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

How often do you consume cabbage in your diet?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

60

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