Do Not Enter News

YES

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Starship lands on Mars

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Cannabis is federally legalized

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

YES

YES

NO

UK has a queen again

USA adds 52nd state

President with Green Eyes elected

Room temperature superconductor discovered

24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

Olympics hosted in Japan again

ChatGPT 10 releases

RSA-2048 cracked

Crewed mission to Phobos

Harlem Globetrotters lose again

2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

Batman enters the public domain

The Beatles music enters the public domain

Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

Norway Bans Whaling

African company or country lands on moon

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

Olympics hosted in Africa

Japan Bans Whaling

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

Longest suspension bridge record broken

Pokemon Card sells for $10M

First hispanic USA president

End support date for Windows 12

Pickleball in the Olympics

Team Fortress 3 releases

Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

ChatGPT 7 releases

human dies on the moon

Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

The first $10T market cap company

USA Adds 51st state

USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

Superman enters the public domain

Iceland Bans Whaling

The version after Windows 12 releases

Centennial Lightbulb burns out

Underwater hold breath world record broken

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

Destiny retires from regular streaming

Bugs Bunny enters public domain

Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

Peppa Pig ends

EU reaches 30 member states

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

Windows 11 end support date

Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

India hosts the Olympics

Human walks on mars

Blood Meridian movie release

marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

Star Citizen releases or company ceases

Family Guy ends

Civilization 8 releases

Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

First female USA president

Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

ChatGPT 6 releases

South Park ends

Manifold reaches 20K MAU

1500 Pokemon Released

Simpsons ends

Xi no longer in power in China

First Trillionaire (USD)

Chicago ends on Broadway

1300 Pokemon Released

Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

Manifold reaches 40K MAU

USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

Trump Dies

Another MLB perfect game pitched

James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

Human walks on moon again

Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

Price of gold hits $5000/oz

Putin no longer in power in Russia

Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

One piece manga ends

a USA president impeached again

Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

Human runs official marathon under 2h

Skibidi Toilet ends

Half Life 3 releases

Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

Shrek 5 releases

Sagrada Familia Church completed

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

The first $5T market cap company

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

USA discontinues or changes penny coin

Death Stranding 2 releases

First $100B revenue media franchise

New Pope after Francis

Civilization 7 releases

Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

pass 500 or more executive orders

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Revoke ten or more citizenships

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Pardon himself

File lawsuit against a congressperson

have a journalist arrested

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

new blockade of a country

Prosecute someone for flag burning

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

resume buying oil from Russia

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

call someone retarded through text or speech

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Dep

Nominate a family member to high office

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

put his name on a ship in the navy

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Announce he’s running for a third term

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

ten or more protestors killed during term

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Causes Tina Peters' early release

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Pardon p diddy

Add a citizenship question to the census

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

take state ownership in an airline

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

take control of a part of ukraine

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

Replace his Vice President

stops all sanctions on Russia

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

force a former president to testify before Congress

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

expand the borders of the usa

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal Obamacare

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

actually disinter bodies from another country

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

orders arrests of any Biden family member

repeal an amendment

Enact price controls on groceries

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

host putin at mar a lago

make statements that are negative about labubu

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

take control of a part of greenland

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

declares a white history month

ends black history month

all time high unemployment reached

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

Causes derek chauvin's early release

fully nationalize an airline

Says 6 7 (or variant)

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

pardon derek chauvin

Raise the retirement age for social security

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Salute Putin

Withdraw from NATO

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Call for the end of child marriage

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

change the borders of a state

add a new state

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Call for the end of the Senate

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

fauci in jail at least one week

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

ban trans people from holding federal offices

Implement a federal abortion ban

bans anime

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Wearing a white dress after labor day

bans 6 7

Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073

Beats Brock before step 2381

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247

Beats Misty before step 9076

Defeats Surge before step 15266

Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426

Defeats Erika

Gets the lift key

Gets the lift key before step 20000

Gets HM02 (Fly)

Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000

Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps

Gets Silph Scope

Gets a fourth badge before 35,000 steps

Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 35,000 steps

Defeats Sabrina

Defeats Silph Co Giovanni

Defeats Koga

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

Stores an item in the PC

Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

Defeats Blaine

Defeats the champion

Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos

Gets a bicycle

Gets a fifth badge before 37,000 steps

Gets Eevee

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon

2030+ or never

2029

2027

2028

2026

2025

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature

Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

By January 1st, 2029

By January 1st, 2028

By January 20th, 2027

By November 3rd, 2026

By July 4th, 2026

By April 1st, 2026

It will not go below 38% before he leaves office.

By January 1st, 2026

Before he enters office

By February 1st, 2025

By March 1st, 2025

By April 1st, 2025

By June 1st, 2025

By September 1st, 2025

By July 4th, 2025

We get an episode of The Snack Zone

This season has more than five episodes

We see a red phone box

An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **

Sam says "We are so back" **

An athlete leaves England

An athlete goes to Edinburgh

Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned

An athlete records a time of less than 7 hours

Every athlete gets 'found' twice

An athlete goes to Manchester

An athlete records a time of more than 10 hours

The season has more than 5 days of real-time game time

An athlete goes to Birmingham

An athlete goes to Newcastle

The seekers hit a time trap

An athlete eats fish and chips

Adam enters a castle

Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **

This season has more than six episodes

Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"

Someone says "Ladies and gentlemen, we got him!"

An athlete goes to Cardiff

We see Hadrian's Wall

Someone plays Curse of the Sniper

An athlete wears a ghillie suit

This season has more than seven episodes

The winning time comes from the first three runs

An athlete travels by boat (A->B)

One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*

Someone mentions Brian McManus

Adam wears a wig

An athlete rides a bicycle

An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **

An athlete hides on an island that isn't Great Britain

The season has more than 6 days of real-time game time

We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner

An athlete has to answer a riddle

An athlete swims

Ben gets drunk (canonically)

We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew

Sam mentions Formula One

Someone eats fondue